Programme

Report

Integrity of Official Statistics

Two threats emerged - Two significant and unprecedented threats have emerged to the institution of an independent, effective and non-political statistical service.

A draft Cabinet paper is based on advice to the Minister in charge of the Archives Department that would remove the current exemption from archiving of statistical schedules. While the draft recommendations purport to seek continuation of the exemption, or set up further analysis, the thrust of the arguments and intentions are to remove the exemption. That step and the other proposed alterations for statistical records will remove certainty for the public about the future confidentiality of information sought by Statistics New Zealand. This could easily lead to problems with ensuring the response rates and accuracy of responses to any or all current and future survey taking.

On 19 December 2001, the Cabinet Business Committee, in considering a proposal regarding the Injury Surveillance Information Manager arrangements, decided in principle that a purchasing agency should have the option to take up a right of first release of statistics, when Statistics New Zealand is an agent of that agency. They asked for a report on implementation, in consultation with other departments, including the possibility of amending the legislation. The decision was obviously based on some concerns held by Ministers. Where these concerns can be met within the boundaries of having independent, non-political statistical reporting, I will endeavour to do so. Otherwise, legislative changes would be necessary.

Co-ordination of Official Statistics

Improving the knowledge base - Statistics New Zealand, together with the Ministry for Social Development and MORST, participated in a review of the knowledge base for social policy. The department will investigate ways of improving access to the range of official statistics and the use of existing official data, especially by non-government researchers.

Successful Cross Departmental Research Pool bids - Both of Statistics New Zealand's bids for funding from the Cross Departmental Research Pool for the 2002/03 round were successful, and received the full amount requested (representing 16 percent of the available pool):

• Understanding job growth - This project will increase the scope and relevance of business and employment statistics, integrating data about individual employees with information on firms.

• Regional input/output model - This will measure the goods and services produced in regional economies, the income generated by that production, and the final demand for the products.

2001 Census of Population and Dwellings

Census counts released - The usually resident population counts were released on target on 17 December. Population and dwelling characteristic data for variables such as age, sex, occupation and dwelling type will be available with the release of the final census database on 28 February 2002.

Supporting publications released - Two supporting publications were made available. Definitions and Questionnaires provides users with definitions of output variables and terms used in the census.

Introduction to the Census provides an overview of the 2001 Census, places the census in the context of census-taking within New Zealand, relates the census to the social and population statistics framework, and places the census in an international context.

2006 Census planning commenced - The General Manager Census 2006 was appointed, and planning has commenced.

Social Statistics

Social surveys programme - Cabinet's Social Equity Committee accepted the recommendations in the Improving the Quality of Official Social Statistics paper on 7 November, and Cabinet confirmed the decision on 12 November. The paper covered the social surveys programme, making greater use of administrative data, and investigating the importance of "setting" in the collection of ethnic data. Lead agencies are being asked to finalise information needs for their relevant topic areas, in consultation with other interested users.

Cultural Experiences Survey - Ministerial approval to proceed with the survey was granted on 3 December.

Household Economic Survey 2001 - Results from this three-yearly survey were released in October. Subsequently, a cluster of errors was identified in the release, requiring an erratum to be issued in early November. The underlying dataset and standard tables were correct and did not need to be revised, but release preparation and checking procedures were reviewed and upgraded.

Household Savings Survey - The fieldwork was completed in early December, and processing commenced.

Injury statistics - The Cabinet Education and Health Committee recommended that Statistics New Zealand be appointed the information manager for injury statistics. This recommendation was confirmed by the Cabinet Business Committee and preparation of the budget bid and business case was started.

Longitudinal Survey of Income, Employment and Family Dynamics - A report outlining the feasibility of recommending a methodology for a longitudinal survey of income dynamics and assets was published in November. The small trial of the survey tools and methods due in October was postponed, and it is anticipated that there will be a delay in going into the field for the first wave of the main survey. This is partly a result of an underestimation of the time needed for, and the complexity of, the development of the electronic questionnaire. The implications of this for the output timetable and budget are being worked through. The major technical review of the questionnaire continued during this quarter, as did the development of systems.

Longitudinal Immigration Survey: New Zealand - The first wave of the pilot survey was conducted in July/August of 2001, and a report evaluating the methodology and performance of this test has been completed. Work is continuing on the development of the pilot wave 2 questionnaire and systems for both the pilot and the main survey, including researching methods for minimising response biases and increasing the overall response rate.

Mäori Language Survey - A media release containing provisional results from the survey was released on 7 December, receiving good coverage in the media. A report containing some 50 tables and an outline of the methodology was provided to TPK, and was published on Statistics New Zealand's website.

Review of the measurement of ethnicity - Consultation with stakeholders proceeded. The submission deadline has been extended to 1 April to allow stakeholders to take the 2001 Census data into account in their submissions.

New publications - The following interesting analytical reports were completed and published during the quarter:

• School Leavers with No Qualifications
• Socio-economic Factors and the Fertility of New Zealand Women
• Tourism & Migration 2000
• Demographic Trends 2001.

Socio-economic indicators related to the environment - The Ministry for the Environment has developed a series of Environmental Performance Indicators according to 14 environmental strands. Statistics New Zealand has been actively working with the Ministry to develop a set of socio-economic indicators to complement the physical indicators compiled by the Ministry. A discussion document was issued in October 2001 and some very useful feedback has been received from a wide range of users of the data. A second draft of the document will be reissued for final comments in April.

Review of the Statistical Needs of Local Government - The report on this review was presented to the Government Statistician on 19 December 2001. The review is the most extensive analysis of local government statistical needs since the reorganisation of local government in 1989, and comes at an opportune time given the present review of the Local Government Act. The review, which included 15 recommendations, covered issues such as:

• uses of statistics by local government
• gaps in statistical data required by local government
• concerns that local government has pertaining to statistical services
• sources and providers of statistics funding options available to progress the recommendations.

As many of the recommendations have significant resource implications, they will be considered in the overall context of the department's priorities.

Economic Statistics
National Accounts

Annual national accounts released early - Early resolution of data quality issues enabled the 2001 annual national accounts to be released on 7 November, two weeks early.

Price statistics

Cell phones and fridges challenge the CPI - Extra work was required in the December quarter to introduce new cellphone pricing regimes. The changes illustrate the challenge facing economic statistics in coping with rapidly changing technologies. A workshop in Australia with colleagues at the Australian Bureau of Statistics provided members of the CPI team with useful material on pricing telecommunications services.

A new mathematical technique known as a "hedonic index" has been used to adjust fridge prices systematically for changes in quality features. A similar technique has already been applied to used cars. The method removes subjective "guesswork" from the process of quality adjustment.

Business statistics

New Manufacturing Survey design improves accuracy and cuts compliance cost - Quarterly statistics on the financial performance of New Zealand manufacturers were published in December from a completely redesigned survey. The new survey replaced one that has been operating since 1992. Several features of the survey design that will help improve data accuracy include an updated sample to better reflect the current industry structure, use of the current classification of industrial activity in designing the industry estimates, use in the sample design of GST-based sales data (which is a better "proxy" for financial performance than employment numbers as was used in the 1992 design), and provision for the quarterly adjustment of the survey to take account of the changing size of individual firms over time.

The new survey also means that some 1,200 businesses that had been in the old survey were no longer obliged to provide quarterly returns. Because of the use of GST-based sales data in place of postal questionnaires for small firms, the new survey has some 450 or 24% fewer respondents than the old survey.

Compliance cost reduction proposals get strong official support - Three proposals put forward by the department have been accepted by the Officials Committee as part of the Government response to the recommendations of the committee set up by the government to help reduce government compliance costs. The committee supported the STEPs proposals that would see SNZ and IRD work together to improve the usability of tax data to replace direct surveying in maintaining the Business Frame. They also agreed to include both the proposal to automate data supply from business accounting systems (making use of XBRL, a standard business XML taxonomy), and the case-management of medium-sized firms having trouble with multi-survey response burdens in the set of proposals for funding in the 2002 Budget round.

Balance of payments statistics

Balance of payments and biotechnology statistics in the public spotlight - Departmental staff presented an outline of data collected in last year's survey of biotechnology at a conference in Napier on molecular science, and a paper on Profit Distribution from Foreign Direct Investment statistics based on improved quarterly Balance of Payments statistics to a symposium on the sustainability of the Current Account Deficit sponsored by Victoria University. Both presentations were very well received, with users complimenting the department on the improved quality of data in both areas.

OECD and IMF welcome New Zealand statistical initiatives - An IMF delegation undertaking an assessment of New Zealand's economic position (under Article 4 of the IMF charter) welcomed the improvements made in the scope of New Zealand's Balance of Payments statistics last year, and the OECD has welcomed New Zealand's renewed involvement with the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) programme, which provides the statistical price comparisons needed to compare the income per capita figures of nations. The PPP programme involves some 50 OECD, EU and transition economies and is part of a wider price comparison programme involving some 120 countries sponsored by the World Bank.

International co-operation

SNZ contributes to ASEAN business statistics seminar - A staff member presented a training seminar to ASEAN statisticians on Business Frames and Business Survey design in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Bilateral conference with ABS - Senior ABS and SNZ managers met in Canberra in November for their biennial conference to discuss common issues, and to advance the very close relationship of the two organisations. Issues discussed included managing respondent burden, HR strategies, data access and privacy issues, the interaction of administration and survey data, management of the national statistical system, ANZSIC, and statistical organisation. Priority matters on which the two agencies would collaborate were also settled.