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Updated 2001-base projections of the European, Māori, Asian and Pacific ethnic populations, usually living in different regions and territorial authority areas of New Zealand, were completed in August 2005. These supersede the subnational ethnic population projects released in December 2003. The projections cover the period to 2016 at five-year intervals, by sex and five-year age group (to 85 years and over).
The projections are neither predictions nor forecasts. They are simply an indication of future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period.
The projections are limited to selected geographic areas, broad ethnic groups and a projection period of 15 years because of the small size of many subnational ethnic populations and because of the uncertain nature of ethnic and subnational population projections as discussed in Nature of projections (below). However, more information is available for users requiring other ethnic population projections.
It is important to note that these ethnic populations are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population.
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Ethnic concept
The ethnic concept used in these projections is the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is self-perceived and people can belong to more than one ethnic group. For example, people may identify with the Māori ethnicity even though they may not be descended from a Māori ancestor. Conversely, people may choose to not identify with the Māori ethnicity even though they are descended from a Māori ancestor. Ethnicity does not equate to a birthplace description.
The 2001 Census asked people "Which ethnic group do you belong to? Mark the space or spaces which apply to you". The census usually resident population count of 3,737,277 included 2,871,432 people who identified with a European ethnicity, 526,281 who identified with the Māori ethnicity, 238,179 who identified with an Asian ethnicity, 231,798 who identified with a Pacific ethnicity, 24,993 who identified with other ethnicities and 150,546 with no ethnic response.
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Base population
These projections have as a base the estimated resident population of each ethnic group of each area at 30 June 2001. These populations were based on the census usually resident population count of each ethnic group of each area at 6 March 2001 and adjusted for:
- non-response to the census ethnicity question
- net census undercount
- residents temporarily overseas on census night
- births, deaths and net migration between census night (6 March 2001) and 30 June 2001
- reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0–9 years.
The estimated resident population, and associated projections, are not directly comparable with census counts because of these adjustments. For more information about the base population, refer to Information about the Population Estimates.
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Alternative series
Three alternative series (designated low, medium and high) have been produced for each ethnicity and each area using different fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. At the time of production, the medium series is considered the most suitable for assessing future ethnic population change and is consistent with the medium series of the 2001-base Subnational Population Projections (regions, cities and districts) released on 28 February 2005, and series 6 of the respective 2001-base National Ethnic Population Projections released on 22 April 2005. In turn, these series are consistent with series 5 of the 2004-base National Population Projections released on 16 December 2004.
The low and high series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. These are independent of other national or subnational projections as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each ethnic group and each area only, rather than for any collective ethnic or geographic level. For example, the high series of the subnational Māori population projections cannot be directly compared with any series of the subnational population projections (total population) because the assumptions are not necessarily compatible.
The low projection series assumes low fertility, high mortality, low net migration and high inter-ethnic mobility for each ethnicity and each area. The high projection series assumes high fertility, low mortality, high net migration and low inter-ethnic mobility for each ethnicity and each area.
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Nature of projections
These population projections are based on assumptions made about future fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility patterns of the population. Although the assumptions are carefully formulated to represent future trends, they are subject to uncertainty. The projections are not exact forecasts but simply illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. They provide an indication of the overall trend but do not attempt to project specific annual variation.
The projections do not take into account non-demographic factors (eg war, catastrophes, major government and business decisions, economic factors, changes to the ethnic classification) which may invalidate the projections. The unpredictability of migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on projection results.
Projections of ethnic populations are more uncertain than projections of the total population for several reasons:
- Unlike other demographic characteristics such as age and sex, ethnicity can change over time. This may occur because of different people responding to the ethnicity question. For example, the ethnicity of babies and young children is usually identified initially by their parents. However, in a later census when these children are old enough to complete their own forms, they will decide for themselves which ethnicity they identify with. This may differ from the original ethnicity identified by their parents.
- There are greater difficulties in establishing past trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Different ethnicities can be reported in different collections (eg birth registration form, death registration form, census form), which makes the derivation of ethnic-specific fertility and mortality rates problematic. Furthermore, the measurement of ethnicity has changed over time in many collections, while it is not captured at all in some collections (eg external migration data).
- Ethnic populations are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People are not asked to prioritise their ethnic responses. Hence, Statistics New Zealand includes people in each of their reported ethnic groups.
- There is the added complication of births to parents of different ethnicity. The child may be considered by the parents to belong to one or more of their ethnicities, or indeed to another ethnicity.
- There is greater future uncertainty about the components of population change. For example, it is uncertain whether the fertility and mortality of different ethnicities will converge, and if so, at what pace. Assumptions about future migration, notably for people of Asian and Pacific ethnicities, are particularly susceptible to changes in immigration policy.
Statistics New Zealand incorporates these issues into its methodology for ethnic population projections and develops alternative projection scenarios to illustrate uncertainty. However, it is because of these issues that Statistics New Zealand does not currently attempt to project the population of ethnicities other than the broad European, Māori, Asian and Pacific ethnic groups.
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Method
A special "cohort component" method has been used to derive the population projections. The method differs from the conventional cohort component method in two respects:
- Projected births for each ethnic group comprise births to women of that ethnicity, plus births to men of that ethnicity with women of other ethnicities.
- The projections allow for population change due to inter-ethnic mobility or ethnic category jumping. This is when people change their ethnic identification from one group to another, or identify with more or fewer ethnic groups over time. Different levels of inter-ethnic mobility change are assumed in the projections.
In this method the base population is projected forward by calculating the effect of deaths, migration and inter-ethnic mobility within each age-sex group according to specified mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. New birth cohorts are generated by applying specified fertility assumptions to the female population of childbearing age, and specified paternity assumptions to the male population.
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Assumptions
Projection assumptions are formulated after analysis of short-term and long-term historical trends, government policy, information provided by local planners, and other relevant information which may affect population change in each area.
The assumed fertility and paternity rates for each area are based on the registered births for each area during the period 1996–2004 and change consistent with the medium fertility and paternity variants of the respective national ethnic population projections.
The assumed mortality rates for each area are based on the registered deaths for each area during the period 1996–2004 and change consistent with mortality variants of the respective national ethnic population projections.
Migration at the subnational level has both external migration and internal migration components, although these separate components are difficult to quantify because of insufficient data. Ethnicity is not collected in external migration data, but the assumed migration is based on an assessment of recent and expected trends of arrivals and departures of New Zealand citizens and non-New Zealand citizens by country of birth.
The assumed future net migration for each area is also based on a consideration of observed net migration during 1997–2001, the capacity of the area for further growth (for areas with net inflow), whether historical outflows can be sustained (for areas with net outflow), the desirability of the area to new migrants, and information available from and about local authorities relating to current and future developments which may affect population change.
Migration assumptions at the subnational level echo the assumptions at the national level:
- Māori and Pacific net migration is assumed to stay constant over the projection period.
- European and Asian net migration is assumed to be higher during 2002–2006 than subsequent periods.
For more information about the projection assumptions, refer to Information about the Demographic Projections.
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Main results
The following results are based on the 'medium' series of the respective subnational ethnic population projections unless otherwise stated.
Derived figures such as percentage changes have been produced using data of greater precision than what is published. The figures may differ slightly from those derived using rounded data.
The projections indicate that the ethnic populations will increase in both the North and South Islands during the period 2001–2016. In the North Island, the European, Māori, Asian and Pacific populations will increase by 4, 22, 112 and 44 percent, respectively, while the corresponding South Island increases are projected to be 6, 26, 95 and 42 percent.
The majority of the population growth is projected to occur in the North Island. The South Island will account for 37, 14, 10 and 6 percent of New Zealand's European, Māori, Asian and Pacific population growth, respectively, between 2001 and 2016.
The North Island is expected to remain home to about 88 and 94 percent of New Zealand's Māori and Pacific population, respectively, during 2001–2016. However, the North Island will slightly decrease its share of the European population from 72 to 71 percent. The North Island will slightly increase its share of the Asian population from 88 to 89 percent.
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Regions
The projections indicate an increasing concentration of European, Māori, Pacific and Asian population in the northern North Island. The combined regions of Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty comprised 51 percent of New Zealand's population in 2001. This is projected to increase to 54 percent by 2016. Over the same period, these four regions are projected to increase their share of the European population from 46 to 47 percent, Māori population from 58 to 59 percent, Asian population from 72 to 77 percent and Pacific population from 75 to 76 percent.
Auckland Region is projected to have the largest numerical increase of European people (up 39,000, from 821,000 to 860,000), Māori people (up 39,000, from 144,000 to 183,000), Asian people (up 222,000, from 175,000 to 397,000) and Pacific people (up 80,000, from 176,000 to 256,000).
All regions are projected to have greater ethnic diversity in the future. The European share in Auckland Region is projected to decline from 67 percent in 2001 to 55 percent by 2016. In contrast, the Asian share in Auckland is projected to increase from 14 percent to 25 percent over the same time. Gisborne is projected to have roughly equal shares of European and Māori by 2016. Its Māori share is projected to increase from 47 percent in 2001 to 54 percent in 2016, and its European share drop from 62 percent in 2001 to 58 percent in 2016. The ethnic shares for an area sum to more than 100 percent because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity.
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Projected European Population Growth Rate
Regional Councils
2001(base)–2016
Projected Māori Population Growth Rate
Regional Councils
2001(base)–2016
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Projected Asian Population Growth Rate
Regional Councils
2001(base)–2016
Projected Pacific Population Growth Rate
Regional Councils
2001(base)–2016
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Territorial Authority areas
Rodney District is projected to have the largest numerical increase in European population during 2001–2016, up 27,000, from 74,000 in 2001 to 101,000 in 2016. Manukau City is projected to have the largest numerical increase in Māori and Pacific populations, up 14,000, from 50,000 to 64,000, and up 43,000, from 82,000 to 125,000, respectively. The largest increase in Asian population will occur in Auckland City with an increase of 100,000, from 77,000 in 2001 to 176,000 by 2016.
Territorial authority areas are generally likely to have lower proportions of the population identifying with European ethnicities. Fourteen of the 20 districts in the South Island had 95 percent of more of their population identifying with a European ethnicity in 2001. Leading the way was Waimate District with 98 percent.
In contrast, the Māori, Asian and Pacific shares are generally projected to increase in territorial authority areas. The Māori, Asian and Pacific shares are generally higher among territorial authority areas in the North Island. Kawerau District is projected to have the highest Māori share in 2016 at 70 percent, up from 61 percent in 2001; Porirua City the highest Pacific share in 2016 at 33 percent, up from 27 percent in 2001; and Auckland City the highest Asian share in 2016 at 36 percent, up from 20 percent in 2001.
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European
Thirty-five territorial authority areas are projected to have an increase in European population during the 15-year projection period. Rodney District (up 27,000, from 74,000 to 101,000) and Tauranga City (up 21,000, from 81,000 to 103,000) are projected to have the largest numerical increases. Queenstown-Lakes District is projected to have the largest percentage increase (up 52 percent, from 17,000 to 25,000).
Among the territorial authority areas, Christchurch City had the largest European population in 2001 of 291,000 followed by Auckland City with 250,000. The European population in these two cities will change only slightly in total number.
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Māori
The Māori population is projected to increase in most territorial authority areas during 2001–2016. Manukau City had the largest Māori population in 2001. It is projected to experience the largest numerical increase in Māori population, up 14,000, from 50,000 in 2001 to 64,000 in 2016. However, the proportion of the Manukau City population who are Māori is projected to drop slightly from 17 percent to 16 percent. By 2016, Manukau City will contain 9 percent of New Zealand's Māori population, the same as in 2001.
Other large increases in the Māori population are projected in Tauranga City (up 8,000, from 16,000 to 23,000), Waitakere City (up 8,000, from 24,000 to 32,000), Christchurch City (up 7,000, from 24,000 to 31,000) and Hamilton City (up 7,000, from 24,000 to 32,000).
Tauranga City is projected to have the largest percentage increase in Māori population, up by 51 percent during 2001–2016. The Māori share in Tauranga District will increase from 17 to 19 percent over this time.
Small declines in the Māori population are projected for Kawerau and Wairoa districts.
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Asian
The Asian population is projected to increase in all territorial authority areas. Almost three-quarters of the growth in the Asian population during 2001–2016 is projected to occur in the four cities in Auckland Region. All are expected to more than double their Asian population during this period. The Asian population in Auckland City will increase by 100,000 (from 77,000 in 2001 to 177,000 in 2016), in Manukau City by 52,000 (from 46,000 to 98,000), in North Shore City by 37,000 (from 26,000 to 63,000) and in Waitakere City by 27,000 (from 20,000 to 47,000). These four cities will be home to 67 percent of New Zealand's Asian population in 2016, compared with 62 percent in 2001.
In Auckland City, over one-third (36 percent) of its residents will be of Asian ethnicity by 2016, up from 20 percent in 2001. The Asian share in Manukau and North Shore cities will be about one-quarter by 2016, up from 15 and 13 percent, respectively.
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Pacific
The Pacific population is projected to increase in all territorial authority areas. About 38 percent of the growth in New Zealand's Pacific population during 2001–2016 is projected to occur in Manukau City. Its Pacific population is projected to increase by 43,000, from 82,000 in 2001 to 125,000 in 2016. By then, 33 percent of New Zealand's Pacific population will live in Manukau City, up from 31 percent in 2001.
The next largest population increases are projected to occur in Waitakere City (up 17,000, from 26,000 in 2001 to 44,000 in 2016) and Auckland City (up 13,000, from 54,000 to 67,000).
By 2016, 33 percent of Porirua City's population will identify with a Pacific ethnicity compared with 27 percent in 2001. For Manukau City the proportion will rise from 28 to 32 percent.
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Age
The median age (half the population is younger, and half older, than this age) can be used as a summary measure to represent the youthfulness or otherwise of a given population. In most areas of New Zealand, the Māori and Pacific populations are generally younger than the Asian population, which is generally younger than the European population.
The median age of New Zealand's European population is projected to increase from 37 years in 2001 to 43 years in 2016. Among territorial authority areas, the median age in 2001 ranged from 32 years in Palmerston North City to 45 years in Thames-Coromandel District. By 2016, the median age is projected to increase in all territorial authority areas and will range from 36 years in Hamilton City to 53 years in Central Otago District.
The median age of New Zealand's Māori population is projected to increase from 22 years in 2001 to 25 years in 2016. Among territorial authority areas, the median age in 2001 ranged from 19 years in Manawatu District to 25 years in Wellington City. By 2016, the median age is projected to increase in all territorial authority areas and will range from 22 years in South Waikato District to 31years in Wairoa District.
The median age of New Zealand's Asian population is projected to increase from 29 years in 2001 to 34 years in 2016. Among territorial authority areas, the median age in 2001 ranged from 23 years in Dunedin City to 31 years in Lower Hutt City and Franklin District. By 2016, the median age is projected to increase in all territorial authority areas and will range from 28 years in Porirua City to 36 years in Auckland City.
The median age of New Zealand's Pacific population is projected to increase slightly from 21 years in 2001 to 23 years in 2016. Among territorial authority areas, the median age in 2001 ranged from 18 years in Papakura District to 25 years in Wellington City. By 2016, the median age is projected to increase in all territorial authority areas except North Shore City (where it will drop slightly, from 23 to 22 years), and will range from 19 years in Papakura and Rotorua districts to 26 years in Wellington City.
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Tables
Table 1E: Projected European Population of Regional Councils
Table 1M: Projected Māori Population of Regional Councils
Table 1A: Projected Asian Population of Regional Councils
Table 1P: Projected Pacific Population of Regional Councils
Table 2E: Projected European Population of Territorial Authorities
Table 2M: Projected Māori Population of Territorial Authorities
Table 2A: Projected Asian Population of Territorial Authorities
Table 2P: Projected Pacific Population of Territorial Authorities
Table 3E: Projected European Population by Age and Population Change of Regional Councils, Medium Series
Table 3M: Projected Māori Population by Age and Population Change of Regional Councils, Medium Series
Table 3A: Projected Asian Population by Age and Population Change of Regional Councils, Medium Series
Table 3P: Projected Pacific Population by Age and Population Change of Regional Councils, Medium Series
Table 4E: Projected European Population by Age and Population Change of
Territorial Authorities, Medium Series
Table 4M: Projected Māori Population by Age and Population Change of
Territorial Authorities, Medium Series
Table 4A: Projected Asian Population by Age and Population Change of
Territorial Authorities, Medium Series
Table 4P: Projected Pacific Population by Age and Population Change of
Territorial Authorities, Medium Series
Table 5: Projected Ethnic Populations of Regional Councils, Medium Series
Table 6: Projected Ethnic Populations of Territorial Authorities, Medium Series
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More information
Ethnic population projections for other areas, including projections by five-year age group and sex, are available on request. For more information and quotes, email demography@stats.govt.nz or telephone 0508 525 525 toll free.
For customised projections, Statistics New Zealand takes responsibility for the method employed but the assumptions used are the final responsibility of the client and the projections are not official Statistics New Zealand population statistics.
National Ethnic Population Projections - Information Releases
National Population Projections - Information Releases
Subnational Population Projections - Information Releases
Projections Overview
Glossary
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