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The last century witnessed significant changes in family size, reproductive patterns and population dynamics. The transition in family size, from relatively large to relatively small families, was already under way when the 20th century began. The current low fertility level should therefore be viewed as essentially an extension of the fundamental changes that began more than 100 years ago. New Zealand women now have fewer children, later in their lives, and many forgo parenting altogether.
Births
Live births registered in New Zealand in the year ended December 2003 totalled 56,134, up 4 percent on the 2002 level (54,021). The 2003 figure is the highest recorded since the December 2000 year, when 56,605 live births were recorded; however, it is still 14 percent less than the peak of 65,390 births recorded in the December 1961 year.
Various fertility indices for New Zealand women are set out in Table 2.10. The total fertility rate gives the average number of births a woman would have during her reproductive life if she was exposed to the age-specific fertility rates observed in a given year. The fertility rates for the December 2003 year indicate that, on average, New Zealand women are giving birth to 1.95 children. This is below the level required for the population to replace itself, without migration (2.1 births per woman). It is also less than half the high of 4.3 births per woman recorded in 1961, which was supported by a dramatic trend toward early and near-universal marriage and early childbearing.
On only two occasions in the last 20 years (1989 and 1990) has the fertility level in New Zealand risen above replacement level, and in 1988 the replacement level was reached. For the remaining 17 years, fertility remained below the replacement level. Sub-replacement fertility is a common demographic phenomenon among developed countries, including France (1.9 births per woman), Australia (1.8), Sweden, England and Wales, and the Netherlands (all 1.7). Some countries, notably Italy and Spain, have recorded fertility rates of below 1.3 births per woman in recent years.
Figure 2.01
Live Births and Fertility Rates
Total population
1921–2003
The trend towards later marriages, smaller families and delayed motherhood is continuing. Fewer New Zealand women in their teens or twenties are having a child. Conversely an increasing number of women in their thirties and forties are having a child. Fertility rates for the December 2003 year indicate that the 30–34 year age group (114 births per 1,000 women) is the most common age group for childbearing, only slightly ahead of the 25–29 year age group (109 births per 1,000 women). This represents a significant departure from the early 1970s, when early marriage and early childbearing were the norm, and the age group 20–24 years was the most common age for childbearing. At that time the fertility rate for women aged 20–24 years (201 per 1,000) was twice that for women aged 30–34 years (95 per 1,000).
Over the past decade, the fertility rates for women in all age groups under 30 years have dropped, while those for women aged 30 years and over have increased. In the year ended December 2003, the fertility rate for teenagers aged under 20 years was 26.3 per 1,000, down from 32.4 per 1,000 in 1993, a drop of 19 percent. Similarly the rate for women aged 20–24 years dropped by 22 percent from 88.8 per 1,000 to 69.0 per 1,000, and the rate for women aged 25–29 years dropped 18 percent from 133.5 per 1,000 to 109.0 per 1,000. The largest increases were recorded for women over 40 years of age. The fertility rate for women aged 40–44 years increased between the December years 1993 and 2003, from 6.3 per 1,000 to 12.2 per 1,000, while that for women aged 45–49 years increased from 0.3 per 1,000 to 0.6 per 1,000.
The median age of New Zealand women giving birth during the year ended December 2003 was 30.2 years, compared with 28.3 years in 1993 and 24.9 years in the early 1970s. On average, New Zealand women are having children about five years later than their counterparts in the early 1970s. The cohort series corroborates the long-term trend away from the early childbearing of the 1960s and 1970s. The estimated median age at childbearing was 28.8 years for women born in 1968 (these women reached age 35 in 2003), compared with 27.1 years for women born in 1958 and 24.8 years for women born in 1948.
Figure 2.02
Median Age of Mother
For nuptial, ex-nuptial and total live confinements(1)
1962–2003
Ethnicity
Changes to the ethnicity question on the birth and death registration forms were introduced in September 1995. Prior to that, only the degree of Māori or Pacific blood was sought. For statistical purposes, all children with half or more degree of blood were classed as Māori or Pacific (as the case may be). No information was available separately for other ethnic groups. Births data up to 1995, based on degree of blood, is available in previous issues of Demographic Trends. The new ethnic question on the birth registration form means that births can now be tabulated by ethnic group and ancestry, of both mother and child. It is important to bear in mind that the introduction of these new questions and the resultant conceptual differences (biological versus self-identification) mean that the new birth data by ethnicity are not directly comparable with the old series.
Figure 2.03
Distribution of Live Births
By ethnicity of child
Year ended 31 December 2003
The number of live births for the year ended December 2003 for the five main ethnic groups, classified separately according to the ethnicity of the mother and ethnicity of the child, were: Māori (12,462 Māori mothers and 15,657 Māori children), Pacific (6,363 mothers and 8,299 children), Asian (5,285 mothers and 5,706 children), European (37,561 mothers and 39,196 children) and Other (681 mothers and 874 children). In a number of cases the mother or child may have belonged to more than one ethnic group. For example, a baby who has both Māori and Pacific ethnicity would be recorded in both ethnic groups. As a result the ethnic group totals would not sum to the New Zealand total. However, within the main ethnic groups each birth is counted only once. For example, a child whose ethnicity is recorded as Māori, New Zealand European and English is counted once in the Māori ethnic group and once in the European ethnic group.
A baby's ethnicity tends to reflect the ethnicities of both parents. In 2003, over three-quarters (78 percent) of births registered belonged to only one ethnic group, 19 percent belonged to two ethnic groups, 3 percent belonged to three ethnic groups and less than 1 percent belonged to four or more ethnic groups. Half as many mothers (11 percent) as babies (22 percent) identified with more than one ethnic group.
In the December 2003 year, more than half (59 percent) of Māori babies and 47 percent of Pacific babies belonged to two or more ethnic groups. In contrast, 73 percent of European babies and 72 percent of Asian babies belonged to only one ethnic group.
Two new ethnic tables have been included in this edition of Demographic Trends – live births by ethnicity and age of mother (Table 2.04) and distribution of live births by ethnicity and age of mother (Table 2.05). These tables highlight the differences in childbearing patterns between the major ethnic groups. Both Māori and Pacific women commence their childbearing at an earlier age than their counterparts. In 2003, 45 percent of Māori women and 34 percent of Pacific women giving birth were aged under 25 years. The corresponding figures for the Asian and European women were 16 and 19 percent, respectively. In the December 2003 year, the median age of Māori mothers was 26.1 years, four years younger than for the total population (30.2 years). The corresponding figure for Pacific women was 27.9 years, Asian women 30.7 years and European women 31.0 years.
Māori indices
Tables 2.10 and 2.13 contain selected fertility rates and age-specific fertility rates for the total and Māori populations. The total fertility rate for the Māori ethnic group in the December year 2003 was 2.55 births per woman, well above replacement level (2.1 births per woman).
Regional fertility
To minimise the annual fluctuations in the number of births and the fertility rates at the regional level, it is customary to take the average number of births over a number of years, generally three years. The 2002 figures given in Table 2.17 are based on the average number of live births registered during 2001–2003.
Regional variations in fertility are marked. In 2002, Gisborne had the highest total fertility rate (2.60 births per woman). Six other regions, namely Northland (2.42), Bay of Plenty and Hawke’s Bay (both 2.32), Taranaki (2.14), Waikato (2.12) and Southland (2.11), had total fertility rates at or above the replacement level (2.1 births per woman). The rate for the whole of New Zealand during this three-year period was 1.95 births per woman. Five regions, Marlborough (1.92), Nelson (1.82), Wellington (1.78), Canterbury (1.71) and Otago (1.56), fell below this national rate.
The low total fertility rate in Otago reflects the high number of young women studying in Dunedin. These young women tend to delay childbirth until they have completed their studies, by which time they are likely to have moved to other regions. The fertility rates for women living in Otago aged under 20 years and 20–24 years (12 and 34 per 1,000, respectively) are less than half the national rates (27 and 72 per 1,000, respectively).
Stillbirths
The Births, Deaths and Marriages Registration Act 1995, which took effect from 1 September 1995, redefined what constituted a stillbirth. Before this Act, a stillbirth was defined as a child born dead after 28 weeks of pregnancy. Under the current definition a child is stillborn if it is born dead and weighs 400g or more at birth, or is born dead after the 20th week of pregnancy. This change in definition has meant that stillbirths data from 1995 onwards are not directly comparable with that of earlier years. In the year ended December 2003 there were 346 stillbirths, 5 percent fewer than in 1997 (364). Over the same period, the stillbirth rate (stillbirths per 1,000 live births) increased slightly from 6.28 per 1,000 in 1997 to 6.13 per 1,000 in 2003.
Additional tables in Population Monitor
Statistics New Zealand's web-based Population Monitor contains a number of additional tables on births to those contained in Demographic Trends. These tables include: age-specific fertility rates (by single years of age) for the total New Zealand population (back to 1962) and for the Māori and non-Māori populations (back to 1996); registered live births by territorial authority and regional council (back to 1991); registered live births, crude birth rate and total fertility rate (back to 1872); median and average age of mothers (and first time mothers) back to 1962, gross and net reproduction rates for the total, Māori and non-Māori populations back to 1962, and completed fertility rate for cohorts of women born during 1894–1968.
Recent additions to the Population Monitor include age-specific and total fertility rates for the major ethnic groups (Māori, Pacific, Asian, European and total) for the three-year period centred on the 2001 Census of Population; annual age-specific and total fertility rates for regional councils from 1996–2002; and the top 100 babies' names for girls and boys born during the December years 1999–2003.
View or download these additional tables.
Note: Births data more detailed than that published in Demographic Trends are available on request from Statistics New Zealand. The variables available are given at the end of this publication (see Unpublished vital statistics and external migration data).
Tables
Tables part 2.xls (448 KB). List of titles of tables.
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