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Household Labour Force Survey: September 2012 quarter
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  08 November 2012
Revisions

 Each quarter, the seasonal adjustment process is applied to the latest quarter and all previous quarters. This means that seasonally adjusted estimates for any of the previously published quarters may change slightly. The following table lists the change in estimates between the current and previous publication for the seasonally adjusted data. For example, the seasonally adjusted number of males not in the labour force for the June 2012 quarter was 440,000. In the September 2012 quarter release, that same estimate has been revised to 439,000. These numbers are rounded to the nearest 1,000, but the relative change derived from the unrounded estimates is a downward revision of 0.09 percent.

Percent revision from last published, seasonally adjusted
Quarter Male employed Female employed Male unemployed Female unemployed Male not in labour force Female not in labour force
Sep 2011  0.00 -0.03 -0.25 -0.28   0.07 -0.08
Dec 2011  0.04 -0.01 -0.16  0.26 -0.05   0.01
Mar 2012

 0.02

-0.02 -0.46  0.04   0.08   0.04
June 2012  -0.06  -0.01  0.92  0.07  -0.09  0.04

The following table presents information on how the trend estimates have been revised. Trend revisions are generally larger than those of the seasonally adjusted data.

Percent revision from last published, trend
Quarter Male employed Female employed Male unemployed Female unemployed Male not in labour force Female not in labour force
Sep 2011 -0.01  0.01   0.12  -0.08 -0.02 -0.04
Dec 2011  0.03  0.00 -0.43  0.06  0.03 -0.01
Mar 2012  0.08  0.00 -0.97  0.00 -0.02  0.01
Jun 2012 -0.26 -0.03  3.31 -0.90 -0.02  0.24

Every estimate is subject to revision each quarter as new data is added, though in practice estimates more than two years from the end-point will change little. For example, the trend estimate of male employment for the September 2011 quarter was 1,182,000 when first published. In the September 2012 quarter, one year later, the trend estimate of male employment for the September 2011 quarter is 1,180,000, a decrease of 2,000 (or a decrease of 0.2 percent using the unrounded estimates). This is an example of a '4-step ahead' revision.

The table below shows the average of all such absolute revisions, expressed relatively, and gives some indication of how much the current estimates might be revised when the December 2012 data becomes available.

Mean absolute percent revisions
Seasonally adjusted Trend
1-step 4-step 1-step 4-step
Male employed 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.17
Female employed 0.07 0.12 0.26 0.28
Male unemployed 0.44 0.69 1.63 1.70
Female unemployed 0.53 0.98 1.91 1.89
Male not in labour force 0.10 0.18 0.36 0.38
Female not in labour force 0.09 0.15 0.36 0.39
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