Retail Trade Survey: February 2009

All references to sales movements are to seasonally adjusted series unless otherwise stated.

February 2009

In February 2009, there was almost no change in seasonally adjusted total retail sales, up just 0.2 percent ($10 million) from January, when sales fell 1.2 percent. Although total sales were flat in February, there were again notable movements in the vehicle-related industries, with automotive fuel retailing up 6.7 percent ($34 million) and motor vehicle retailing down 3.2 percent ($17 million).

Sales in core retailing, which excludes the four vehicle-related industries, were also flat, down just 0.1 percent ($5 million) in February 2009, following a small rise of 0.2 percent in January. Recreational goods (down 4.9 percent or $10 million) and accommodation (down 4.2 percent or $9 million) showed the largest decreases in February while supermarket and grocery stores (up 1.0 percent or $12 million) had the largest increase. Sales were down in 9 of the 20 core industries in February 2009.

Fifteen of the 24 industries surveyed had dollar movements, up or down, of $5 million or less.

 

Sales trend

The total retail sales trend has been in decline or flat since December 2007 and has fallen 3.4 percent since then. Between December 2007 and August 2008, the rate of decline was a monthly average of 0.1 percent, but since August, the average monthly decline has increased to 0.5 percent.

The core retail sales trend has been rising almost continually since September 1995, at an average rate of 0.4 percent per month. Since April 2007, the rate of increase has flattened to a monthly average of 0.1 percent, the longest period of slow increase since September 1995.

 

Automotive fuel retailing

Automotive fuel retailing sales rose 6.7 percent ($34 million) in February 2009, following falls (totalling 16.9 percent) in the four preceding months. The latest increase is the largest since November 2007, when sales rose 6.9 percent.

The trend in automotive fuel retailing sales has been falling since July 2008 and is down 17.9 percent since then. Before this period of decline, the trend rose 32.4 percent between December 2006 and July 2008.

Compared with January, pump prices for petrol were higher throughout February, while prices for diesel showed little change.

 

Motor vehicle retailing

Motor vehicle retailing sales fell 3.2 percent ($17 million) in February 2009 following a fall of 12.0 percent in January.

The trend in motor vehicle retailing has been falling since August 2007, dropping 27.1 percent since then. The trend is now at its lowest level since January 2001.

Land Transport New Zealand figures show registrations of new cars and station wagons, including vehicles previously registered overseas, fell 21.5 percent in February to the lowest number since April 1994.

 

Recreational goods retailing

Within the core industries, the biggest decline in February 2009 came from recreational goods retailing, down 4.9 percent ($10 million) compared with January. This followed increases of 2.7 and 6.0 percent in December 2008 and January 2009 respectively.

The sales trend for recreational goods retailing has been rising since August 2008 and is now up 4.7 percent since that turning point. Before August, the trend had been mostly declining since May 2007, dropping 6.7 percent over that period.

Supermarket and grocery stores

Within the core industries, supermarket and grocery stores had the biggest sales increase in February 2009, rising 1.0 percent ($12 million). This followed an increase of 1.7 percent in January.

The trend in supermarket and grocery store sales has been rising almost continuously since September 1995 with only two brief periods of slight decline in mid-2004 and mid-2008. The average monthly increase over this time has been 0.5 percent. Following the slight decline in mid-2008, the trend has risen 4.6 percent at an average monthly rate of 0.6 percent.

 

Other industries

Other movements in sales (February 2009 compared with January) included:

• Accommodation – down 4.2 percent ($9 million)
• Clothing and soft-goods retailing – down 4.0 percent ($8 million)
• Other retailing – up 3.2 percent ($8 million).

Figures indicate turning points in the sales trends for the following industries:

• Appliance retailing – after a period of growth in mid-2008, the sales trend is down 3.0 percent since September 2008
• Bars and clubs – after rising since July 2007, the sales trend has fallen 8.1 percent since September 2008
• Other personal services – after increasing consistently since early 2005, the sales trend is now indicating a decline of 1.6 percent since September 2008.

Regional estimates

In February 2009 compared with January 2009, sales were down in both the North and South Islands, and either down or flat in all regions. Changes by region were as follows:

• Auckland – down 0.4 percent
• Waikato – no change
• Wellington – down 1.4 percent
• Remainder of the North Island – no change
• Canterbury – down 0.6 percent
• Remainder of the South Island – down 0.8 percent.

It may be noted that total retail sales showed a 0.2 percent increase in February, while figures for both the North and South Islands showed decreases. Seasonal adjustment is run separately for each region and industry, allowing the identification of – and adjustment for – individual variations in seasonal patterns. The total retail sales figure is calculated by adding industry data and therefore may not show exactly the same pattern as the sum of regional data.

The trend for sales has been declining in the North Island (down 4.4 percent since January 2008), but was flat in the South Island (up less than 0.1 percent in the last six months). By region, the following graph illustrates that sales trends are in decline in all regions except Canterbury. The regional sales trends are as follows:

• Auckland – flat or declining since November 2007, down 5.4 percent since then
• Waikato – down 3.6 percent since August 2008
• Wellington – down 5.0 percent since March 2008
• Remainder of the North Island – down 4.5 percent since February 2008
• Canterbury – flat or rising since December 2003 at an average rate of 0.5 percent per month; average rate of increase is also 0.5 percent over the last six months
• Remainder of the South Island – down 4.4 percent since March 2008.

 

Note: The trend series in the graph above have been indexed to a base: December 2004 (=1000) for the purpose of comparing regional trends over four years.

Revisions

There were no revisions to the Retail Trade Survey in the February 2009.

Comparison statistics

For February 2009 compared with January 2009:

• The Food Price Index rose 0.2 percent.
• New registrations of cars and station wagons (including vehicles previously registered overseas) fell 21.5 percent.
• Seasonally adjusted short-term overseas visitor arrivals rose 2.9 percent.
• The seasonally adjusted value of the retail Electronic Card Transaction (ECT) series rose 0.5 percent, and the seasonally adjusted value of the core retail ECT series fell 0.4 percent.

Long-term comparison:

• Credit card billings in New Zealand (including spending using New Zealand and overseas-issued cards) were down 6.4 percent compared with February 2008.

Other:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate was at 3.50 percent throughout February 2009.

Measurement errors

All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, the survey applies imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the technical notes of this release.

Sample errors

The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

• 2 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level
• 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level.

This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 2 percent of the published estimate.

At the industry level, the following sample errors occurred in the February 2009 month (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, all large firms are surveyed and all small to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue.

Imputation

Small firms

Small to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of their variables.

Non-response imputation

Although every attempt is made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated by a number of methods, including:

• regression imputation
• historic imputation
• mean imputation.

Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement over the month of similar businesses. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.

Postal response rate

The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. The Retail Trade Survey has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the February 2009 survey was 91 percent.

Next release ...

Retail Trade Survey: March 2009 quarter will be released on 15 May 2009