Retail Trade Survey: November 2009

All references to sales movements are to seasonally adjusted series unless otherwise stated.

November 2009

In November 2009, total retail sales were up 0.8 percent ($46 million), following two months of flat results. The latest increase was led by automotive fuel retailing and the ‘other retailing' industry. Core retail sales (which exclude the four vehicle-related industries) were also up 0.8 percent ($34 million), following a 0.5 percent increase in October 2009. Twelve of the 20 core retail industries recorded increases.

Vehicle-related sales were up 0.9 percent, following a 1.1 percent drop in October 2009.

Overall, the largest increases were:

• automotive fuel retailing – up 3.8 percent ($20 million)
• other retailing – up 7.3 percent ($17 million)
• department stores – up 3.5 percent ($11 million)
• liquor retailing – up 9.0 percent ($9 million)
• automotive electrical, smash repairs, and tyres – up 8.0 percent ($9 million)
• clothing and softgoods retailing – up 2.9 percent ($6 million).

The largest decreases were:

• motor vehicle retailing – down 3.2 percent ($17 million)
• cafes and restaurants – down 1.9 percent ($7 million).

The rest of the retail industries moved up or down by less than $5 million.

Sales trend

The total retail sales trend has been rising since February 2009 (up 2.5 percent), at an average rate of 0.3 percent per month. This followed a 3.3 percent fall between February 2008 and February 2009.

Since February 2009, the core retail trend has also increased at an average rate of 0.3 percent per month, compared with an average increase of 0.1 percent between April 2007 and February 2009.

Industries with trends currently showing strong or consistent rates of increase are:

• department stores – up 3.9 percent since June 2009
• bars and clubs – up 7.0 percent since June 2009
• cafes and restaurants – up 3.6 percent since July 2009
• personal and household goods hiring – up 6.8 percent since June 2009
• other personal services – up 3.7 percent since May 2009
• automotive fuel retailing – up 2.3 percent since July 2009.

Conversely, industries with trends currently showing strong or consistent rates of decrease are:

• fresh produce – down 9.1 percent since June 2009
• liquor retailing – down 1.7 percent since April 2009
• other food retailing – down 4.1 percent since July 2009
• footwear retailing – down 3.9 percent since April 2009.

Vehicle-related industries

Automotive fuel retailing and the automotive electrical, smash repairs, and tyres industry had a $29 million combined sales increase in November 2009. This was largely offset by a sales decrease of $17 million in motor vehicle retailing. Automotive repair and services not elsewhere classified (nec) sales were flat.

Automotive fuel retailing

In November 2009, automotive fuel retailing was the largest contributor to increases in retail sales, with a 3.8 percent increase ($20 million). Both petrol and diesel prices, which are not seasonally adjusted, were higher in November 2009 than in October 2009.

Figures indicate a turning point in the sales trend was reached in July 2009. Since then the trend has been increasing at an average of 0.6 percent per month. Prior to this, the trend fell 18.2 percent between August 2008 and July 2009.

Motor vehicle retailing

Motor vehicle retailing sales fell 3.2 percent ($17 million) in November 2009, following a 0.8 percent increase in October. This was the largest fall recorded since January 2009, when sales fell 11.2 percent on the previous month.

The sales trend has been increasing since March 2009 (up 3.5 percent), but has eased recently. The current trend level is still down 24.7 percent since the series’ peak in May 2007.

Movements in the other vehicle-related industries were:

• Automotive electrical, smash repairs, and tyres – up 8.0 percent ($9 million), following 7.0 percent and 1.8 percent decreases in October and September 2009 respectively. The trend has been rising since October 2008, but the rate of increase has been slowing in recent months.
• Automotive repair and services nec – sales were flat (up less than $1 million). The sales trend reached a turning point in August 2009, with the level of the trend down 1.0 percent since then. Initial trend estimates should be used with caution as they may be revised as more data points become available.

Other retailing

Other retailing includes activities such as retailing antique and used goods, flowers, garden supplies, and watches and jewellery.

Other retailing was the second-largest contributor to the increase in retail sales, with a 7.3 percent increase ($17 million) in November 2009. This is the largest increase since June 2008, when this industry recorded an 8.3 percent increase on the previous month.

The sales trend peaked in February 2009. Between March and July 2009 the trend fell 7.1 percent. Since then, it has risen 2.7 percent but is still 4.5 percent lower than when the series peaked.

Department stores

Department stores recorded the third-largest increase in retail sales in November 2009, up 3.5 percent ($11 million).

The trend fell 5.5 percent between September 2008 and June 2009. It reached a turning point in June 2009 and has been steadily increasing, at an average of 0.8 percent per month, since then. The trend is now at its highest level since October 2008.

Other industries

Cafes and restaurants

Cafes and restaurants recorded the second-largest decrease, down 1.9 percent ($7 million), in November 2009. This followed a 9.5 percent ($31 million) increase in October 2009.

The trend has risen 3.6 percent since July 2009, when it reached a turning point.

Supermarket and grocery stores

Supermarket and grocery stores, which account for a third of core retail sales, were flat, up just 0.2 percent ($2 million) in November 2009, following a 1.1 percent fall in October.

The sales trend, which rose an average of 0.7 percent per month between July 2008 and June 2009, has flattened in the latest months.

Regional estimates

In November 2009, the value of seasonally adjusted sales was flat in the North Island (up just 0.2 percent) and rose in the South Island (up 1.8 percent). The only region with a sales decrease was Auckland, down 0.5 percent. Changes in sales were as follows:

• Auckland – down 0.5 percent
• Waikato – up 0.7 percent
• Wellington – up 1.5 percent
• Remainder of the North Island – up 0.3 percent
• Canterbury – up 1.4 percent
• Remainder of the South Island – up 2.3 percent.

The sales trend has been rising in the North Island since February 2009 (up 2.6 percent), and in the South Island since June 2009 (up 1.9 percent). In the South Island the rate of increase appears to be strengthening.

Illustrated in the graph above, the regional sales trends are as follows:

• Auckland – the trend has been rising, up 5.1 percent since January 2009. However, the rate of increase has slowed in the latest months.
• Waikato – the trend has been rising, up 2.1 percent since February 2009.
• Wellington – the trend is down 6.1 percent since August 2008, but has flattened in the latest months.
• Remainder of the North Island – the trend has been rising, up 2.0 percent since April 2009.
• Canterbury – the trend has been rising, up 1.7 percent since July 2009.
• Remainder of the South Island – the trend has been rising since January 2009, up 4.5 percent.

Revisions

There were no revisions to the Retail Trade Survey in the November 2009 month.

Comparison statistics

For November 2009 compared with October 2009:

• The food price index fell 0.3 percent.
• New registrations of cars and station wagons (including vehicles previously registered overseas) rose 9.1 percent.
• Seasonally adjusted short-term overseas visitor arrivals fell 3.7 percent.
• As first published (on 9 December 2009), the seasonally adjusted value of the retail Electronic Card Transaction (ECT) series rose 0.7 percent, and the seasonally adjusted value of the core retail ECT series rose 0.3 percent.

Other:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate was unchanged at 2.50 percent throughout November 2009.

Measurement errors

All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, the survey applies imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release.

Sample errors

The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

• 2 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level
• 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level.

This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 2 percent of the published estimate

At the industry level, the following sample errors occurred in the November 2009 month (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, all large firms are surveyed and all small to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue.

Imputation

Small firms

Small to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of their variables.

Non-response imputation

Although every attempt is made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated by a number of methods, including:

• regression imputation
• historic imputation
• mean imputation.

Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement of similar businesses over the month. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.

Postal response rate

The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. The Retail Trade Survey has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the November 2009 survey was 90 percent.

The table below indicates the percentage of sales imputed in the November 2009 month:

For technical information contact:
Chris Stephenson or Yannick Monteyne
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...

Retail Trade Survey: December 2009 quarter will be released on 12 February 2010.