Overseas Merchandise Trade: August 2009

Information in this release is for the month of August 2009 compared with August 2008 unless otherwise stated.

Exports

The value of merchandise exports for the month of August 2009 was $2.7 billion, down $830 million (23.2 percent) from August 2008. This is the largest percentage fall in exports (compared with the same month of the previous year) since March 1986 when exports fell 27.7 percent, but follows the 34.3 percent increase in exports in August 2008 (the largest increase since October 1990). Exports in August 2009 are back to a level similar to August 2007, before the large value rises observed in dairy and crude oil exports in the latter half of 2007 and during 2008. 

After rising steadily from mid-2007, the trend for total merchandise exports has been declining from its peak in October 2008 and is down 10.5 percent since then. The level of the trend is now comparable to what it was in November 2007. This is the biggest fall seen in the trend since the 16.5 percent fall that occurred from June 2001 to June 2003.

In August 2009 compared with August 2008, export values declined across most of the top 40 commodity categories and most of the top 20 countries by country of destination.

Crude oil showed the largest decrease in August 2009, down $177 million (50.9 percent), mainly due to lower prices.

Meat and edible offal was the next largest fall, down $125 million (32.2 percent), led by exports of frozen beef and sheep cuts. Overall quantities of meat and edible offal were down about one-third from August 2008.

By country of destination, the largest fall in exports was to Australia, down $296 million (28.0 percent) led by exports of crude oil, down $180 million.

Exports to the United States of America were the next most significant decrease, down $122 million (40.7 percent), with exports of meat and edible offal down $51 million, led by bovine cuts, down $38 million. 

Exports to Japan were the third largest decrease, down $93 million (27.8 percent), with crude oil a significant contributor (down $46 million), as no crude oil was exported to Japan in August 2009. Aluminium exports were the next largest contributor, down $31 million.

The largest increase in exports in the month of August 2009 were those to the People’s Republic of China, up $37 million (19.9 percent). This increase was led by wood exports, which were up $30 million (led by pinus radiata logs), and milk powder, butter and cheese, up $12 million (led by whole milk powder).

The next largest increase was Malaysia, up $12 million (22.1 percent). This increase was led by crude oil, which was up $29 million. August 2009 saw the first export of crude oil to Malaysia since May 2008.

Imports

In the month of August 2009, merchandise imports were valued at $3.5 billion, down $953 million (21.6 percent) from August 2008. Excluding one-off imports, import values have now fallen by 19 percent or more for each of the last five months, when compared with the same month of the previous year.

The trend for merchandise imports has been decreasing since peaking in August 2008, and is down 20.7 percent since then. This is the largest fall in the imports trend since the series began in 1988.

All of the main broad economic categories were down in August 2009 compared with August 2008, except for consumption goods which remained virtually unchanged .

• The intermediate goods category recorded the largest decrease, down $518 million (23.5 percent). This fall was led by a decrease in crude oil, down $360 million (56.7 percent), mainly due to lower prices. Other commodities to show significant declines within intermediate goods were fertilisers, and iron and steel.
• Capital goods were down $292 million (35.4 percent) led by transport equipment, with a one-off import of large aircraft valued at $102 million in August 2008.
• Consumption goods remained virtually unchanged from August 2008, down just 0.2 percent.  
• Passenger motor cars were down $71 million (26.6 percent). Significant contributors to this decrease were petrol cars with a 1500-3000cc rating (down $24 million) and exceeding 3000cc (down $19 million).
• Petrol and avgas was the next largest decrease, down $39 million (32.4 percent).

 

 

In August 2009 compared with August 2008, import values declined across most of the top 40 commodity categories and most of the top 25 countries by country of origin.

Petroleum and products recorded the largest decrease, down $424 million (45.1 percent). This fall was led by crude oil as mentioned above. Crude oil is imported in large, irregular shipments, which can give rise to large fluctuations in quantities and values.

Vehicles, parts, and accessories was the next largest decrease, down $151 million (34.3 percent), as imports of passenger motor cars fell by $71 million (26.6 percent) and goods transport vehicles fell by $52 million (64.5 percent).

 

Iron and steel and articles, down $70 million (45.6 percent), and fertilisers, down $63 million (70.6 percent), were the next largest decreases. Imports of fertiliser tend to be irregular.

By comparison, increases in imports were fewer and smaller, the largest being optical, medical and measuring equipment, up $23 million (21.2 percent), and pharmaceutical products, up $10 million (11.4 percent). 

By country of origin, the largest decrease in imports came from Australia, down $261 million (30.0 percent), mainly due to a fall in crude oil; vehicles, parts and accessories (mainly passenger cars); and iron and steel.

Imports of crude oil tend to be irregular, especially by country of origin. In August 2009, Qatar was down $169 million (76.0 percent), and United Arab Emirates was down $163 million (96.3 percent), while Indonesia was up $69 million (150.3 percent). All these movements were mainly due to changes in crude oil imports.

The largest increase in imports by country of origin came from Singapore, up $79 million (76.6 percent) mainly due to an increase in refined or partly refined petroleum products.

Trade balance

In August 2009, the trade balance was a deficit of $725 million or 26.4 percent of the value of exports. This compares with an average August deficit of 34.1 percent of exports for the previous five years.

The trend for the trade balance has been within $80 million (positive or negative) of balancing for the past seven months.

The annual trade balance for the year ended August 2009 was a deficit of $2.4 billion (5.6 percent of exports). As a percentage of exports, this is approximately one-third of the average (of 16.0 percent) for the preceding five August years.

Three months ended August 2009

Exports of merchandise goods for the three months ended August 2009 were valued at $9.2 billion, a fall of $1.4 billion (13.6 percent) from the same period of the previous year.

In the three months ended August 2009, key increases and decreases in exports compared with the three months ended August 2008 were as follows:

By commodity:

• Crude oil recorded the largest decrease, down $490 million (49.7 percent), driven by lower prices.
• The second largest decrease was for milk powder, butter and cheese, which decreased $198 million (11.9 percent), driven by substantially lower prices, despite a significant increase in quantities.
• The next largest decrease was for meat and edible offal, which was down $193 million (15.0 percent). The main drivers behind this movement were decreases in beef (down $103 million or 19.6 percent); and meat from sheep and goats (down $60 million or 9.4 percent).
• The largest offsetting increase is for logs, wood and wood articles, which increased $28 million (4.9 percent). Although most wood categories decreased, untreated pinus radiata logs increased $69 million (41.8 percent) with a 32.8 percent increase in the quantity exported.

By country of destination:

• Exports to Australia showed the largest fall, down $679 million (23.6 percent), led by a $509 million fall in crude oil.
• The next largest fall was in exports to Japan, down $246 million (25.8 percent), due to a variety of decreases; led by unwrought aluminium (down $98 million).
• Exports to China showed the largest increase, up $238 million (40.5 percent), with significant contributions from pinus radiata logs, whole milk powder, and crude oil.

Imports of merchandise goods for the three months ended August 2009 were valued at $10.4 billion, down 16.7 percent from the same period of the previous year.

In the three months ended August 2009, key increases and decreases in the value of imports compared with the three months ended August 2008 were as follows:

By commodity:

• The petroleum and products category had the largest decrease, down $1.2 billion (47.8 percent), led by decreases in crude oil, down $656 million; automotive diesel, down $242 million; and motor spirit, down $122 million. Prices were down significantly for all three commodities with significant quantity decreases for automotive diesel and motor spirit as well.
• Vehicles, parts and accessories decreased $553 million (41.5 percent) – the second largest decrease, led by passenger motor vehicles, down $292 million, and goods transport vehicles, down $170 million.
• Mechanical machinery and equipment decreased $164 million (11.2 percent) spread across several commodities.
• Aircraft and parts recorded the largest increase, up $574 million (177.7 percent), led by an increase in large aircraft being imported, up $421 million. Jetstar commencing domestic air services in June 2009 was the major contributor to this increase.

By country of origin:

• Imports from Australia showed the largest decrease, down $485 million (20.2 percent), with significant decreases in crude oil, partly refined petroleum, and passenger motor cars.
• Imports from the United Arab Emirates were the next largest decrease, down $398 million (94.7 percent) almost entirely due to a decrease in crude oil with none being imported from there in the three months ended August 2009.
• Imports from Japan were down $341 million (35.2 percent) due to a variety of items, including passenger motor vehicles (down $104 million), goods transport vehicles (down $42 million), automotive diesel (down $75 million), and various items of mechanical machinery and equipment (down $64 million).
• The largest increase was from France, up $585 million (311 percent), mostly due to the increase in large aircraft imports associated with the commencement of Jetstar domestic air services in June.

Exchange rate movements

According to the Reserve Bank's Trade Weighted Index (TWI), the New Zealand dollar was 3.7 percent higher in August 2009 compared with July 2009, and 4.1 percent lower compared with August 2008.

Updates to previous statistics

Provisional values published on 27 August 2009 have been updated. Merchandise trade statistics for the latest three months are provisional to allow for the inclusion of late data and amendments.

 

For technical information contact:
Henry Minish or Scott Davis
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz 

Next release...

Overseas Merchandise Trade: September 2009 will be released on 29 October 2009.