Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2009

Seasonally adjusted exports – March 2009 quarter

The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise exports decreased 4.0 percent ($449 million) in the March 2009 quarter following an increase of 2.7 percent ($299 million) in the December 2008 quarter. This decrease is the largest for exports since the December 2006 quarter (down 8.0 percent).

Milk powder, butter and cheese showed the largest decrease, down 9.8 percent ($236 million) mainly due to lower prices, despite a 17.2 percent increase in quantities. Crude oil exports, which are not seasonally adjusted, decreased 46.1 percent ($218 million) due to lower quantities and prices. Aluminium and aluminium articles were down 42.5 percent ($145 million) due to lower quantities and prices. Logs, wood and wood articles were down 11.0 percent ($69 million) due to lower prices

Fruit was the largest offsetting increase, up 10.8 percent ($42 million) mainly due to higher quantities. This increase was closely followed by meat and edible offal, up 3.0 percent ($42 million) due to higher prices, its seventh consecutive quarterly increase. Fish, crustaceans and molluscs increased 6.7 percent ($22 million) due to higher prices.

Seasonally adjusted imports – March 2009 quarter

The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise imports decreased 12.8 percent (to $10.9 billion) in the March 2009 quarter, following a 0.2 percent increase in December 2008. This is the first seasonally adjusted decrease since September 2007, and is the largest fall since the series began in March 1988.

With the exception of consumption goods (which rose 1.5 percent or $43 million), all of the Broad Economic Categories (BEC) recorded decreases. Intermediate goods led this quarter’s decreases, with a fall of 20.0 percent ($1.3 billion

Within the intermediate goods category, crude oil fell 52.0 percent ($622 million), as continued price decreases coincided with a drop in the quantity of oil imported. Although neither the price nor the quantity decreases were unusually large, they combined to make a substantial decrease in the overall value of crude oil imported. This quarter’s decrease follows a price-led 17.4 percent decrease in the December 2008 quarter. Crude oil is imported in large, irregular shipments, which can cause large percentage fluctuations in the series. Intermediate goods other than crude oil fell 10.8 percent ($555 million), following a 4.5 percent increase in the December 2008 quarter.

Capital goods fell 7.8 percent ($171 million), following a 2.6 percent fall in the December 2008 quarter. This decrease was led by a 37.8 percent ($149 million) fall in transport equipment (which excludes passenger motor cars). This is the third successive fall in the transport equipment category, and follows falls of 21.3 percent and 7.2 percent in the December and September 2008 quarters, respectively.

Passenger motor cars recorded a 34.5 percent ($195 million) decrease in the March 2009 quarter, following a 26.2 percent ($201 million) decrease in the previous quarter, bringing the seasonally adjusted value of passenger motor cars to its lowest level since the September 1997 quarter. >

The quarterly imports trend rose at an average of 4.3 percent per quarter between September 2007 and September 2008, but has since been falling at an average of 5.2 percent per quarter.

Seasonally adjusted trade balance – March 2009 quarter

The seasonally adjusted trade balance for the March 2009 quarter was a deficit of $65 million. This is the smallest seasonally adjusted trade deficit since the June 2002 quarter when there was a deficit of $23 million. The March 2009 quarter deficit is equivalent to 0.6 percent of exports, and compares with an average of 13.8 percent of exports since December 2001, the last quarter to show a surplus

The trend for the trade balance has risen significantly over the past two quarters. While still in deficit, the trade balance trend is at its highest level since the March 2002 quarter, when it was a surplus. However, initial trend estimates may be revised and should be used with caution until more data points are available.

March 2009 month – actual values

The actual value of merchandise exports exceeded $4 billion for the first time in the March 2009 month, up 17.7 percent ($607 million) from March 2008. This month’s result includes the sale of large aircraft valued at $128 million.

The trend for total merchandise exports has been rising at an average rate of 0.7 percent per month since January 2008. This follows a period of strong growth for the months of July 2007 to December 2007, when the trend rose by an average of 2.1 percent per month. The growth in the second half of 2007 was associated with the start up of Tui oil in August 2007 and strong growth in dairy prices over that period.

In the month of March 2009, key increases and decreases in exports by commodity and by country of destination were as follows:

• Aircraft and parts showed the largest increase (up $135 million), due to the export of large aircraft.
• Meat and edible offal was the next largest, up $125 million (25.8 percent). This increase was led by higher prices for fresh and frozen lamb cuts and frozen beef cuts.
• Preparations of cereals, flour and starch were up $62 million (115 percent), led by milk-based nutritional powder.
• Fruit was up $41 million (58.1 percent), led by increased prices in Royal Gala apples and an earlier start to the kiwifruit season.
• Aluminium and aluminium articles was the most significant decrease, down $49 million (39.6 percent), led by lower quantities and prices of unwrought aluminium.
• By country of destination, the largest increases in total exports were to Australia, up $228 million (33.1 percent), and the People’s Republic of China, up $221 million (119 percent). The majority of the increase to Australia was due to aircraft and parts, and an increase in crude oil. The increase for China included whole milk powder, logs, and milk-based nutritional powder.
• The largest offsetting decrease by country of destination was Thailand, down $64 million (60.1 percent), led by crude oil.

In the month of March 2009, merchandise imports were valued at $3.7 billion, up 6.9 percent ($241 million) from March 2008 to reach the highest value for any March month.

The imports trend has been falling since September 2008 and is down 6.9 percent ($286 million) since then.

In the month of March, key increases and decreases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:

• Electrical machinery and equipment recorded the largest increase, up $84 million (29.1 percent), led by equipment for wind-powered electricity generation.
• Mechanical machinery and equipment increased $77 million (16.7 percent), led by a $41 million increase in turbine parts – the second largest increase.
• Vehicles, parts and accessories recorded the largest decrease, down $184 million (42.7 percent), as imports of passenger motor cars fell by $153 million (55.9 percent) and goods transport vehicles fell by $38 million (46.2 percent).
• Petroleum and products fell $59 million (8.5 percent), as a $203 million fall in crude oil was substantially offset by a rise in other petroleum products.
• The biggest increase was from China, up $129 million (34.4 percent), led by apparel and clothing accessories, and by electrical machinery and equipment.
• Singapore recorded the second largest increase, rising $112 million (127 percent) due to a large increase in the quantity of petroleum and products imported.
• The biggest decrease was recorded by Qatar, down $92 million (64.3 percent), led by crude oil.

Trade balance – March 2009 actual values

The trade balance for the March 2009 month was a surplus of $324 million, or 8.0 percent of exports. This surplus is the largest for a March month (in dollar terms) since 2002, when there was a surplus of $501 million. As a percentage of exports, the average balance for the preceding five March months was a deficit of 0.5 percent.

Three months ended March 2009 – actual values

Merchandise exports for the March 2009 quarter were $10.7 billion, up $446 million (4.4 percent) on the previous March quarter.

Comparing the March 2009 quarter with the March 2008 quarter, key increases and decreases in exports by commodity and by country of destination were as follows:

• The exports increase was led by meat and edible offal, which was up $287 million or 20.1 percent. This increase was led by a price-driven increase of $198 million in cuts of lamb.
• Preparations of cereals, flour and starch was the next largest increase, up $148 million (or 95.8 percent) – mainly due to an increase of $143 million in milk-based nutritional powder, because of increased prices and quantities.
• The largest offsetting decrease was milk powder, butter and cheese, down $264 million. This was mainly the result of a $291 million, price-driven decrease in whole milk powder.
• Exports to China increased $437 million, led by increases in a variety of items, including whole milk powder, milk-based nutritional powder, and roughly squared pinus radiata logs.
• The next largest increase was to the United States of America (up $347 million). This increase was also spread over several commodities, including milk powder, butter and cheese, up $111 million, and meat and edible offal, up $67 million.
• The largest offsetting decrease by country was for exports to Thailand, which decreased $144 million, led by a $75 million decrease in crude oil.

Merchandise imports for the three months ended March 2009 were $10.0 billion, down 3.6 percent on the same period of the previous year.

Key increases and decreases for the three months ended March 2009 compared with the same period of the previous year were:

• The largest increase was for electrical machinery and equipment, up $158 million (19.3 percent), led by increased imports of wind-powered electricity-generating equipment.
• The largest decrease was for vehicles, parts and accessories, which fell $538 million (42.6 percent), led by a $417 million (55.9 percent) decrease in passenger motor cars, and a $151 million (52.6 percent) decrease in vehicles for the transport of goods.
• Petroleum and products recorded the second largest decrease, down $310 million (17.3 percent), due to large falls in the quantity and price of crude oil.
• By country of origin, Singapore recorded the largest increase, up $180 million (49.3 percent) due to increased quantities of motor spirit, petroleum, and diesel.
• The largest decrease was from Australia, down $209 million (11.6 percent) led by decreases in petroleum and products, inorganic chemicals, and vehicles.

Exchange rate movements

According to the Reserve Bank’s Trade Weighted Index (TWI), the New Zealand dollar rose 2.9 percent in March 2009 compared with February 2009. This is the first increase in the value of the New Zealand dollar since February 2008.

The TWI fell 7.1 percent in the March 2009 quarter compared with the December 2008 quarter, the fourth consecutive quarterly fall. The TWI is 25.4 percent lower in the March 2009 quarter than it was during the same period of the previous year.

Updates to previous statistics

Provisional values published 27 March 2009 have been updated. Merchandise trade statistics for the latest three months are provisional to allow for the inclusion of late data and amendments.




For technical information contact:
Kate Jackett or Michael Wallace
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz.

Next release...

Overseas Merchandise Trade: April 2009 will be released on 26 May 2009.