Overseas Merchandise Trade: September 2009

Seasonally adjusted exports – September 2009 quarter

The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise exports fell 6.8 percent in the September 2009 quarter to $9.4 billion. This is the third consecutive quarterly decrease, and follows a 5.5 percent decrease in the June quarter.

 

Since reaching its highest point in the December 2008 quarter, the trend for total merchandise exports has fallen 15.5 percent, the sharpest fall in the trend series since the series began in 1988. This fall is slightly larger than the 14.9 percent fall that occurred over eight quarters starting in the December 2001 quarter.

Nine of the top 10 commodity groupings in table 12 (top 10 Harmonised System categories) recorded decreases this quarter. Meat and edible offal recorded the largest decrease, down 18.3 percent ($246 million) with a 16.0 percent decrease in the quantities exported. Milk powder, butter, and cheese also recorded a decrease, down 5.6 percent ($119 million), despite a slight (2.0 percent) increase in quantities. Mechanical machinery and equipment also recorded a large decrease this quarter, down 14.1 percent ($61 million).

Crude oil, which is not seasonally adjusted, was the commodity with the largest rise in the September 2009 quarter, up 40.2 percent ($167 million). This rise was price driven, with a 10.4 percent increase in quantities. This rise in crude oil exports follows an increase of 63.7 percent in the June quarter, which coincided with the commencement of oil exports from the Maari oil field in April 2009. 

Seasonally adjusted imports – September 2009 quarter

The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise imports decreased 8.1 percent to $9.5 billion in the September 2009 quarter. This follows falls of 13.2 percent and 3.4 percent in the March and June 2009 quarters respectively. Seasonally adjusted imports have now declined to a similar level to what they were in the December 2005 quarter. The June 2009 quarter includes the one-off import of several large aircraft valued at $571 million, which affects comparisons with adjacent quarters. The seasonally adjusted value of  imports would have decreased only 2.8 percent in the September 2009 quarter if the one-off import of aircraft was excluded from the June 2009 quarter import value.

Since reaching its highest level ever in the September 2008 quarter, the trend for total merchandise imports has fallen 23.6 percent, the largest fall in the trend series since it began in 1988. Large one-off imports over $100 million are excluded from the trend series calculation.

 

Of the broad economic groups, capital goods showed the largest decline in the September 2009 quarter, followed by consumption goods, and petrol and avgas. These decreases were partly offset by increases in, passenger cars, military, and other goods and intermediate goods.

Capital goods imports fell 27.2 percent ($621 million) in the September 2009 quarter, mainly because of a 70.1 percent ($543 million) fall in transport equipment, and are now at their lowest level since the September 2003 quarter. This fall was from a high level in the June 2009 quarter, which included the one-off importation of large aircraft mentioned above. Machinery and plant declined 5.2 percent ($78 million) in the September 2009 quarter, following a decline of 14.4 percent in the June 2009 quarter.

 

Consumption goods declined 5.7 percent ($162 million) in the September 2009 quarter, following a 3.3 percent decline in the June 2009 quarter. The main contributors to this decline were: durable consumer goods; processed food and beverages, mainly for household consumption; and semi durable goods (includes items such glassware, cutlery, and apparel).

Petrol and avgas fell 6.9 percent ($19 million) in the September 2009 quarter.

Intermediate goods were virtually unchanged this quarter, rising 0.1 percent ($5 million), following a 12.2 percent fall in the June 2009 quarter. There were significant rises in parts and accessories of transport equipment, up 40.3 percent ($156 million) and processed fuels and lubricants (other than motor spirit), up 16.7 percent ($59 million). These increases were mostly offset by a fall in processed industrial supplies, down 9.2 percent ($192 million). Crude oil, which is not seasonally adjusted, rose 37.5 percent ($229 million). Crude oil is imported in large, irregular shipments, which can give rise to large fluctuations in quantities and values.

Passenger cars rose 13.4 percent ($57 million) in the September 2009 quarter, following a 14.4 percent rise in the June 2009 quarter. The last two quarterly increases are from a low level, with the March 2009 quarter value being the lowest since the September 1997 quarter.

 

Seasonally adjusted trade balance – September 2009 quarter

The seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance for the September 2009 quarter was a deficit of $104 million (1.1 percent of exports), following deficits of 0.4 percent and 2.6 percent of exports in the March and June 2009 quarters respectively. Prior to the March 2009 quarter, trade deficits of less than 5 percent of exports had not been seen since the first half of 2002. The most recent quarterly seasonally adjusted trade surplus was in the December 2001 quarter.

 

September 2009 month – actual values

In the month of September 2009, merchandise exports were valued at $2.8 billion, down $347 million (10.9 percent) from September 2008. This is the fourth consecutive monthly fall in exports compared with the same month of the previous year.

The trend for merchandise exports has decreased 13.1 percent since peaking in October 2008.

In September 2009, key increases and decreases in exports by commodity and by country of destination compared with September 2008 were as follows:

By commodity:

• Milk powder, butter, and cheese decreased $95 million (18.0 percent), despite overall quantities being up 55.5 percent. There were declines over several commodities, with large decreases in cheddar cheese and anhydrous milk fat. Whole milk powder export values were virtually unchanged, while quantities doubled.
• The second largest decrease for the month was aluminium and aluminium articles down $46 million (34.3 percent), led by unwrought aluminium, down $41 million (37.2 percent) and was largely price driven, with quantity down 7.0 percent.
• The next largest decrease for the month was mechanical machinery and equipment, down $43 million (24.9 percent).
• Crude oil showed the largest increase, up $60 million (38.4 percent), with the quantity exported being twice that of September 2008.
• The next largest increases were in logs, wood and wood articles, up $22 million (11.4 percent), led by pinus radiata logs, up $35 million (61.3 percent), and wood pulp and waste paper, up $12 million (24.1 percent).

By country of destination:

• Exports to the United States of America had the largest decrease in September 2009, down $103 million (34.6 percent), with casein and caseinates down $28 million (238 percent); and meat and edible offal down $23 million (40.2 percent), led by frozen bovine cuts and sheep meat. The largest increase in exports to the United States was kiwifruit, up almost 200 percent or $3 million.
• The next largest decrease was in exports to Japan, down $47 million (18.4 percent). Aluminium and aluminium articles were the largest decline, down $38 million (50.1 percent), and was almost entirely accounted for by declines in unwrought aluminium. Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports were down $15 million (57.2 percent), led by cheddar, down $8 million (81.5 percent). Casein and caseinates were down $10 million (58.8 percent). Wood pulp and waste paper were up $12 million.
• Singapore was the destination with the largest increase in exports, up $35 million (76.6 percent), led by crude oil, up $38 million.
• The second largest increase was to the People’s Republic of China, up $33 million (16.1 percent). Logs, wood and wood articles increased by $31 million (86.4 percent), led by pinus radiata logs. Milk powder, butter, and cheese increased $27 million (94.6 percent), led by concentrated unsweetened whole milk powder. These increases were partly offset by a decrease in infant formula, down $23 million (94.9 percent).

 

In September 2009, merchandise imports were valued at $3.2 billion, down $1.2 billion (26.6 percent) from September 2008. Excluding one-off imports, import values have now fallen by 19 percent or more for each of the last six months, when compared with the same month of the previous year.

The trend for merchandise imports has been decreasing since August 2008, and is down 25.4 percent since then.

In September 2009 compared with September 2008, import values declined across almost all of the top 40 commodity categories and the top 25 countries by country of origin. Key decreases and increases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:

By commodity:

• Petroleum and products recorded the largest decrease, down $242 million (34.3 percent). Crude oil led this decrease due to lower prices, with prices nearly half what they were in September 2008.
• Vehicles, parts and accessories was the next largest decrease, down $172 million (42.5 percent), as imports of passenger motor cars fell by $76 million (33.0 percent), goods transport vehicles fell by $55 million (75.0 percent), and tractors fell $17 million (64.3 percent).
• Mechanical machinery and equipment decreased $136 million (26.9 percent), across a wide range of products.
• Fertilisers decreased $122 million (70.0 percent), led by a fall in urea due to greatly reduced quantities and prices. Salt, earths, stone, lime, and cement decreased $97 million (84.3 percent), led by a fall in natural calcium phosphates, again with greatly reduced quantities and prices for this commodity.
• By comparison, increases in imports were fewer and smaller, the largest being sugars and sugar confectionery, up $7 million (31.8 percent), and essential oils, perfumes, and toiletries, up $4 million (8.9 percent).

By country of origin:

• The largest decrease in imports by country of origin came from Japan, down $212 million (54.5 percent), led by decreases in automotive diesel, with none imported from there this September, and lower vehicle imports (mainly passenger cars).
• The next largest decrease by country of origin was from Indonesia, down $211 million (82.4 percent), mostly due to a decrease in crude oil, with none imported from there in September 2009.
• The largest increases in imports by country of origin came from Brunei Darussalam, up $33 million, and United Arab Emirates, up $16 million (48.2 percent). The increase for Brunei was mainly due to crude oil, while the increase for United Arab Emirates was mainly due to partly refined crude.

 

Trade balance – September 2009 actual values

The merchandise trade balance for the September 2009 month was a deficit of $424 million (15.0 percent of exports). As a percentage of exports, the September trade deficit is less than half the average of the preceding five September months (33.8 percent of exports).

The trade balance for the September 2009 year was a deficit of $1.5 billion (3.7 percent of exports), compared with an average deficit of 10.5 percent of exports over the last 10 September years. 

Year ended September 2009 – actual values

The value of merchandise exports for the year ended September 2009 was $41.6 billion, down 0.9 percent ($381 million) from the year ended September 2008. In the year ended September 2009, key increases and decreases in exports compared with the year ended September 2008 were as follows:

By commodity:

• Crude oil recorded the largest decrease, down $1.3 billion (42.9 percent), as both prices and quantities fell.
• Aluminium and aluminium articles recorded the next largest decrease, down $469 million (32.4 percent), led by unwrought aluminium.
• Milk powder, butter, and cheese declined $382 million (4.2 percent), led by whole milk powder.
• Meat and edible offal recorded the largest increase, up $408 million (8.3 percent), led by sheep meat.
• Logs, wood and wood articles exports rose $316 million (15.4 percent) – the next largest increase, led by pinus radiata logs.
• Preparations of cereals, flour, and starch was the next largest increase, up $227 million (29.9 percent).  

By country of destination:

• Australia had the largest decrease of any country, down $635 million (6.4 percent), led by crude oil.
• Thailand had the next largest decrease, down $276 million (34.0 percent), also led by crude oil, with no crude oil exports to Thailand in the last twelve months.
• China had the largest increase of any country, up $1.3 billion (57.7 percent), led by milk powder, butter, and cheese; logs, wood and wood articles (mainly pinus radiata logs); and by preparations of cereals, flour, and starch.
• The next largest increase by country was to the United States of America, up $353 million (8.6 percent), led by milk powder, butter, and cheese; albuminoidal substances, modified starches, glues, and enzymes (largely casein and caseinates); and meat and edible offal.

The value of merchandise imports in the year ended September 2009 was $43.1 billion, down 8.3 percent on the previous September year. Key increases and decreases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:

By commodity:

• Vehicles, parts and accessories had the largest decrease, down 1.9 billion (35.7 percent). This decrease was led by a $1.3 billion decrease in passenger cars. Petrol cars with a 1500-3000cc rating decreased $521 million, and those with a cc rating exceeding 3000 decreased $461 million. In addition, imports of goods vehicles decreased $552 million.
• Petroleum and products had the next largest decrease, down $1.8 billion (22.1 percent).
• Mechanical machinery and equipment decreased $517 million (8.6 percent), led by a decrease in well sinking and boring machinery, down $306 million. This was mainly due to an oil platform that was imported in the previous September year in April 2008.
• The largest offsetting increase was aircraft and parts, up $414 million (42.0 percent), mainly due to an increase in aircraft parts and the importation of large aircraft, the latter being associated with the one-off importation of large aircraft in June 2009.
• Electrical machinery and equipment was the next largest increase, up $343 million (8.9 percent), led by electricity generators and mobile phones.

By country of origin:

• Australia recorded the largest annual decrease, down $1.1 billion (12.0 percent), led by vehicles parts and accessories, down $339 million; petroleum products, down $308 million; and iron and steel, down $135 million.
• Imports from Japan showed the next largest decrease, down $930 million (22.6 percent), led by vehicles parts and accessories, down $756 million; and mechanical machinery and equipment, down $154 million.
• Imports from Malaysia were down $731 million (37.9 percent), led by mechanical machinery and equipment, down $335 million, due mainly to the importation of an oil platform in the previous year, as mentioned above. Crude oil was also a large downward contributor.
• The largest increase by country of origin was France, up $651 million (86.5 percent), mainly as a result of the one-off import of aircraft in June 2009.
• The next largest increase by country of origin was China, up $316 million (5.2 percent). This was spread across a number of commodities, with electrical machinery and equipment, up $147 million (including items such as mobile phones and televisions), being the leading contributor.

Exchange rate movements

According to the Reserve Bank's Trade Weighted Index (TWI), the New Zealand dollar was 2.3 percent higher in September 2009 compared with August 2009, and 0.8 percent higher compared with September 2008. The TWI has now risen every month since February 2009, and is 22.9 percent higher since then.

The TWI rose 7.2 percent in the September 2009 quarter, compared with the June 2009 quarter, the second quarterly rise following four quarters of falls. The TWI is 4.5 percent lower in the September 2009 quarter than it was in the same period of the previous year.

 

Updates to previous statistics

Provisional values published on 25 September 2009 have been updated. Merchandise trade statistics for the latest three months are provisional to allow for the inclusion of late data and amendments.

 

For technical information contact:
Henry Minish or Scott Davis
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz

Next release...

Overseas Merchandise Trade: October 2009 will be released on 27 November 2009.