Overseas Trade Indexes (Volumes): December 2008 quarter (provisional) - Revised 29 April 2009 - see attached erratum

Merchandise export volumes

The seasonally adjusted export volumes index fell 1.8 percent in the December 2008 quarter following a 2.3 percent fall in the September 2008 quarter. Export volumes have fallen for four consecutive quarters, and are now 11.0 percent lower than the peak reached in the December 2007 quarter. The petroleum and petroleum products and forestry products indexes were the main contributors to the fall in the December 2008 quarter. Rises in the dairy products and casein indexes had the largest offsetting effects on the overall fall.

The petroleum and petroleum products index (which is not seasonally adjusted) fell 17.5 percent in the December 2008 quarter and was the largest contributor to the fall in total export volumes. This was the second consecutive quarterly fall for petroleum and petroleum products, and was mainly due to a fall in crude oil export volumes associated with declining production levels.

The next largest contribution to the overall fall in export volumes came from the forestry products index which fell 5.7 percent in the December 2008 quarter. All the forestry sub-indexes fell this quarter after rising in the September 2008 quarter.

Other indexes to make significant contributions to the overall fall in the December 2008 quarter were: fruit and vegetables (down 5.6 percent), fish and fish preparations (down 7.4 percent), textiles, clothing, footwear (down 16.8 percent), and meat (down 1.7 percent).

Rises in the dairy products and casein volume indexes, up 4.0 and 31.0 percent, respectively, were the largest offsets to the overall fall in export volumes in the December 2008 quarter. Whole milk powder (up 112 percent) and cheese (up 48.2 percent) were the most significant contributors to the rise in dairy volumes. These rises were partly offset by falls in volumes for skimmed and buttermilk powder (down 24.2 percent) and butter (down 15.3 percent).

The machinery and transport equipment index was also a significant offsetting rise (up 6.6 percent).

Merchandise import volumes

The seasonally adjusted import volumes index fell 5.8 percent during the December 2008 quarter. This is the second consecutive fall for total imports, which is now 9.4 percent lower than the June 2008 quarter level. The passenger motor cars index and capital goods index were the main contributors to the fall in the December 2008 quarter. Consumption goods also recorded a fall, while intermediate goods and motor spirit indexes both rose this quarter. When fuel imports are excluded, import volumes fell 8.2 percent.

 

The passenger motor cars index fell 27.1 percent in the December 2008 quarter, the largest contributor to the overall fall in import volumes. This index is at its lowest level since the June 2002 quarter. New petrol cars with cylinder capacity exceeding 3000cc were the main contributors to the fall in the latest quarter.

The capital goods index fell 7.7 percent in the December 2008 quarter. The machinery and plant sub-index (down 9.0 percent) and the capital transport sub-index (down 31.5 percent) both fell this quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter that both these sub-indexes have fallen. For the machinery and plants sub-index, the fall was spread over a number of commodities, while the fall in capital transport sub-index was due to aircraft.

The consumption goods index fell 3.6 percent in the December 2008 quarter, following a fall of 3.2 percent in the September 2008 quarter. The semi-durable sub-index (down 9.7 percent) was the main contributor to the fall in total consumption goods, and is at its lowest level since the March 2005 quarter. The fall in this sub-index was broad based over a number of commodities.

The intermediate goods index rose 1.2 percent in the December 2008 quarter. The primary fuels and lubricants sub-index (up 15.6 percent) was the main contributor to the rise in total intermediate goods, with crude oil contributing the most to this rise. The processed food and beverages for industries sub-index (up 5.7 percent) also recorded a rise. The other sub-indexes within the intermediate goods category showed falls in the December 2008 quarter, except for the parts and accessories of transport equipment sub-index.

The motor spirit index rose 5.5 percent in the December 2008 quarter, following a 37.0 percent fall in the September 2008 quarter. The movements in this index are often influenced by large irregular imports.

Updates to previously published data

The overseas trade indexes are provisional for one quarter to allow for the receipt and editing of late and amended trade documentation. The following table shows updates to unadjusted indexes and values.

The export merchandise series in this release are calculated from the same data as used in the Overseas Merchandise Trade: January 2009 monthly release published on 26 February 2009.

The import merchandise series in this release are calculated from the same data as used in the Overseas Merchandise Trade: February 2009 monthly release published on 27 March 2009.

Updates published after this date will be included in subsequent overseas trade index (volumes) releases.

For technical information contact:
Soni Makaafi or Henry Minish
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz

Next releases...

Overseas Trade Indexes (Prices): March 2009 quarter (provisional) and Overseas Trade Indexes (Volumes): March 2009 quarter (provisional) will both be releasesd on 10 June 2009.