Overseas Trade Indexes (Volumes): September 2008 quarter (provisional)

Merchandise export volumes

The seasonally adjusted export volumes index fell 2.3 percent in the September 2008 quarter following a 3.8 percent fall in the June 2008 quarter. Export volumes have decreased for three consecutive quarters, and are now at a similar level to the March 2007 quarter. The dairy products index and the petroleum and petroleum products index were the main contributors to the fall in the September 2008 quarter. Rises in the forestry and fruits indexes had the largest offsetting affects on the overall increase.

The dairy products index fell 4.3 percent in the September 2008 quarter and was the largest contributor to the fall in total export volumes. The volume of dairy products has fallen for three consecutive quarters and is now at its lowest level since the September 2004 quarter. The whole milk powder sub-index (down 37.4 percent), and the cheese sub-index (down 14.0 percent), contributed most to the current fall in dairy product volumes. Both these sub-indexes have fallen for the past three quarters.

The next largest contribution to the overall decrease in export volumes came from the petroleum and products sub-index – it fell 9.6 percent in the September 2008 quarter and crude oil was the major contributor.

Other sub-indexes to make significant contributions to the overall decrease in the September 2008 quarter were: meat (down 4.4 percent), aluminium (down 14.3 percent), and iron and steel (down 22.0 percent).

Offsetting the overall decrease in the September 2008 quarter were increases in the forestry, and fruits indexes, up 3.2 and 4.1 percent, respectively. All the forestry sub-indexes increased this quarter. Pinus radiata logs contributed the most to the overall rise in the forestry index. The increase in the fruit index in the latest quarter followed a 7.3 percent decrease in the June 2008 quarter, and a 9.1 percent decrease in the March 2008 quarter.

Merchandise import volumes

The seasonally adjusted import volumes index fell 5.0 percent during the September 2008 quarter, coming off the all-time high of the June 2008 quarter, and is now at a similar level to that seen in the March 2008 quarter. The capital goods index was the main contributor to the fall in the September 2008 quarter; it was also the main contributor to the rise in the June 2008 quarter (when it reached a new high). The capital, intermediate, and consumption goods indexes all fell this quarter.

The capital goods index fell 18.2 percent in the September 2008 quarter, following a 38.2 percent rise in the June 2008 quarter. The machinery and plant sub-index (down 17.0 percent) was the main contributor to this decrease. An oil rig and floating platform with a combined value of $477 million were imported during the June 2008 quarter. The capital transport sub-index (down 12.5 percent) also fell with smaller aircraft the major contributor to the fall.

The intermediate goods index fell 2.4 percent in the September 2008 quarter, the first fall since the June 2006 quarter. The processed fuels and lubricants sub-index (down 16.9 percent) was the main contributor to the fall in total intermediate goods, with partly refined petroleum contributing the most to this fall. Within the intermediate goods category, the primary industrial supplies sub-index (down 18.1 percent) and the parts and accessories of capital and transport equipment sub-index (down 3.3 percent) were the only other sub-index to record a fall, with the other sub-indexes all showing increases.

The consumption goods index fell 2.7 percent in the September 2008 quarter, following a rise of 0.9 percent in the June 2008 quarter. The processed food and beverages for household sub-index (down 12.5 percent) was the main contributor to the fall in total consumption goods. Rises in this sub-index were spread over a number of commodities with chocolate and other food preparation containing cocoa showing the largest increase. The semi-durable and durable sub-indexes were down 2.4 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

The motor spirit index fell 34.4 percent in the September 2008 quarter, and is at its lowest level since the December 2006 quarter. The decrease in volume was mainly due to lower imports of regular and premium petrol; the complete opposite of the situation in the June 2008 quarter. Movements in this index are often influenced by large irregular imports.

The passenger motor cars index rose 5.1 percent in the September 2008 quarter, following a rise of 3.9 percent in the June 2008 quarter. New cars with cylinder capacity range 1500–3000cc were the main contributors to the rise in the latest quarter.

Updates to previously published data

The overseas trade indexes are provisional for one quarter to allow for the receipt and editing of late and amended trade documentation. The following table shows updates to unadjusted indexes and values.

The import and export merchandise series in this release are calculated from the same data as used in the Overseas Merchandise Trade: October 2008 monthly release published on 27 November 2008. Updates published after this date will be included in subsequent overseas trade index (volumes) releases.

For technical information contact:
Soni Makaafi or Henry Minish
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz.  

 

Next releases ...

Overseas Trade Indexes (Prices): December 2008 quarter (provisional) 
and
Overseas Trade Indexes (Volumes): December 2008 quarter (provisional)
will both be released on 11 March 2009.