International Travel and Migration: July 2010

Commentary

Visitor arrivals

Monthly visitor arrivals

Short-term overseas visitor arrivals to New Zealand numbered 182,900 in July 2010, up 4 percent from 176,200 in July 2009. The 2010 figure was the highest ever recorded for a July month.

The underlying trend (209,300), derived from the seasonally adjusted series, shows that visitor arrivals have been increasing since April 2010. Before this, they had been declining from an all-time high in November 2009 (211,500). 

The estimated average number of visitors in New Zealand per day was 107,800 in July 2010, up 2 percent from 105,900 in July 2009. The number of visitors in the country is typically lower in July than in the summer months. In comparison, the peak month of January 2010 saw an average of 211,500 visitors in New Zealand per day.

Monthly visitors by source country

In July 2010, there were more visitor arrivals from China (up 3,900 or 94 percent), Japan (up 2,800 or 74 percent), and Korea (up 800 or 16 percent), after the H1N1 pandemic affected numbers travelling from those countries in July 2009. The number of visitors from China in July 2010 (8,000) was higher than in July 2008 (6,800), prior to the H1N1 outbreak. However, arrivals from Japan and Korea were still well below July 2008 levels.

Visitor arrivals from Australia numbered 94,800 in July 2010, up 1,600 (2 percent) from July 2009. This adds to a 20 percent increase between July 2008 and July 2009. The 17,400 more visitors from Australia in July 2010, compared with July 2008, included 10,400 more visitors aged 20 to 34 years, 4,000 more aged under 20 years, and 2,800 more aged 35 to 54 years. The main increase from July 2008 was in holiday visitors (up 13,400 or 38 percent) and travellers visiting friends and relatives (up 4,700 or 21 percent). There were 2,000 fewer arrivals on business purposes from Australia in July 2010, compared with July 2008.

Graph: Visitors from China, July 2010.   Graph: Visitors from Australia, July 2010.
 

There were fewer visitors from the United Kingdom (down 2,400 or 20 percent) and the United States (down 1,800 or 13 percent) in July 2010, compared with July 2009. Visitor arrivals from these countries were the lowest for a July month since 1999 and 1998, respectively.

Note: Provisional international travel statistics, including weekly and four-weekly visitor arrival data, are available on the Statistics NZ website. This data is updated each week with the most recently available information on visitor arrivals from 10 major source countries.

Annual visitor arrivals

Annual visitor arrivals to New Zealand numbered 2.508 million in the July 2010 year, up 96,100 (4 percent) from the July 2009 year (2.412 million).

Almost half of all visitors in the July 2010 year were arriving for a holiday (1.211 million). Another 786,500 arrived to visit friends and relatives, and 244,900 arrived for business.

Graph: Annual visitor arrivals, July 2010.   Graph: Visitor arrivals by reason, July 2010.

Annual visitors by source country

In the July 2010 year, compared with the July 2009 year, visitors from Australia increased by 97,400 (10 percent) to 1.121 million, and accounted for 45 percent of all visitors. There were also more visitors from the Asian countries of China (up 4,200 or 4 percent), Taiwan (up 4,100 or 25 percent), India (up 3,600 or 15 percent), Hong Kong (up 3,600 or 17 percent), Korea (up 3,300 or 6 percent), and Japan (up 2,900 or 3 percent).

There were fewer visitors from the United Kingdom (down 14,500 or 6 percent), South Africa (down 5,100 or 23 percent), Ireland (down 4,400 or 23 percent), and the United States (down 3,800 or 2 percent) in the July 2010 year, compared with the July 2009 year.

Detailed tables about visitor arrivals

The International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand report, released monthly, contains detailed tables about the number and characteristics of visitor arrivals to New Zealand. It has previously been available only by subscription, but is now available for free on Statistics NZ's website. This report is released two working days after this International Travel and Migration information release. The July 2010 report will be available from 24 August 2010, accessible from the International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand homepage.

Departures of New Zealand residents

Monthly resident departures

New Zealand residents departed on 208,000 short-term overseas trips in July 2010, up 9,600 (5 percent) from 198,400 trips in July 2009. This was the highest ever departure total for a July month. 

New Zealand residents took 7,700 more trips to Australia in July 2010, compared with the previous July. There were also more trips to Samoa (up 1,000), China, Indonesia, the Cook Islands, and Japan (each up 600). There were fewer trips to the United Kingdom (down 1,300).

The trend in New Zealand resident departures (170,000), derived from the seasonally adjusted series, is at an all time high. This series has been increasing since March 2009, and has surpassed the previous peak in January 2008 (167,700).

The estimated average number of New Zealand residents who were temporarily overseas during July 2010 was 140,200 per day, up 6,700 (5 percent) from the average in July 2009.

Graph: Monthly resident departures, July 2010.  

Annual resident departures

Short-term departures of New Zealand residents in the July 2010 year numbered 1.978 million, up 61,800 (3 percent) from the July 2009 year.

New Zealand residents departed on more trips to Australia (up 25,300 or 3 percent), Fiji (up 7,700 or 9 percent), and China (up 5,400 or 10 percent) in the July 2010 year. However, the 97,700 trips to Fiji were still well below the 109,400 trips to that country in the July 2006 year.

A holiday was the main travel purpose for 802,600 New Zealand residents who departed in the July 2010 year, up 22,200 (3 percent) from the previous year. Another 674,500 departed to visit friends and relatives (up 21,300 or 3 percent). Departures for business purposes (274,800) were up 15,300 (6 percent) from the July 2009 year.

Graph: Annual resident departures, July 2010.   Graph: Resident departures by reason, July 2010.

Note: Provisional international travel statistics, including weekly and four-weekly resident departure data, are available on the Statistics NZ website. This data is updated each week with the most recently available information on resident departures to 10 major destination countries.

Permanent and long-term migration

Definition

Permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals include people who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus New Zealand residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more. The former group may include people with New Zealand residency, as well as students and holders of work permits. PLT departures include New Zealand residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus overseas visitors departing New Zealand after a stay of 12 months or more.

Monthly PLT migration

Seasonally adjusted net PLT migration was 1,000 in July 2010, up from 100 in June 2010. Although seasonally adjusted net PLT migration increased from June 2010, it was still lower than the monthly average of 1,900 recorded between February 2009 and January 2010. Before July 2010, the monthly seasonally adjusted series had been steadily decreasing from 1,800 in January 2010, because of falling arrivals and increasing departures. The latest increase in seasonally adjusted net PLT migration was due to a rebound in PLT arrivals, as well as a levelling off of PLT departures. It is too early to say whether the rebound in arrivals is temporary, or will be sustained.

On an unadjusted basis, PLT arrivals outnumbered departures by 1,400 in July 2010, down from 2,700 in July 2009. The decrease in net migration in July 2010, compared with July 2009, was due to 400 fewer arrivals and 900 more departures. 

In July 2010, there were net inflows of migrants from India (900), China (400), Germany, and the Philippines (each 200). The net outflow of 1,400 PLT migrants to Australia was up from 900 in July 2009, but still well down from the net outflow of 2,700 in July 2008.  

Annual PLT migration

Net migration was 15,200 in the July 2010 year, compared with 14,500 in the July 2009 year. The 81,900 PLT arrivals in the July 2010 year were down 7 percent from the July 2009 year. The 66,700 PLT departures were also down, by 10 percent.

Graph: Annual PLT migration, July 2010.   Graph: Annual net PLT migration, July 2010.

 

The net PLT migration gain of 15,200 in the July 2010 year was higher than the annual average of 11,900 for the December years 1990–2009. Net PLT migration varied substantially within this 20-year period. The net gain peaked at 30,200 in the April 1996 year and again at 42,500 in the May 2003 year. Net outflows were experienced during most of 1998–2001, with the largest a net loss of 13,200 people in the February 2001 year.

Annual PLT migration by country

In the July 2010 year, the net inflow of migrants from the United Kingdom was 6,800, down from 9,300 the previous year. Net inflows were also recorded from India (5,600) and China (3,500) in the July 2010 year.

The net PLT outflow to Australia was 16,500 in the July 2010 year, well down from 26,900 in the July 2009 year. The latest net outflow saw 32,300 departures to Australia partly offset by 15,800 arrivals from Australia. The majority of migrants in both directions were New Zealand citizens.

Annual PLT migration by citizenship

There was a net outflow of 15,000 New Zealand citizens in the July 2010 year, the lowest outflow for a July year since 2003 (11,000). The net inflow of 30,200 non-New Zealand citizens was the lowest for a July year since 2005 (also 30,200).

PLT arrivals of New Zealand citizens numbered 26,000 in the July 2010 year, above the average of 23,500 recorded for the 1979–2009 December years, but below the peaks of the March 1991 year (29,600) and the October 2003 year (27,800). Arrivals of New Zealand citizens tend to show relatively little variation year-to-year, and the variation that does occur often follows trends in departures of New Zealand citizens a few years earlier.

PLT departures of New Zealand citizens have shown much more annual variation than arrivals of New Zealand citizens. The highest number of departures of New Zealand citizens was 64,300 in the October 1979 year, but by the January 1984 year, this had decreased to a low of 24,400. PLT departures of New Zealand citizens numbered 41,100 in the July 2010 year, well down from 50,700 in the July 2009 year, and 58,400 in the July 2008 year.

 Graph: Annual PLT migration of New Zealand citizens, July 2010.

PLT arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens were less than 30,000 a year between 1979 and 1992, then doubled to reach a peak of 58,800 in the July 1996 year. Another peak of 72,800 was reached in the February 2003 year. The changes in arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens reflect changes in arrivals of temporary workers (including working holidaymakers) and overseas students staying for 12 months or more, as well as arrivals for residence. The 55,900 non-New Zealand citizen arrivals in the July 2010 year were down from 63,100 the previous July year.

PLT departures of non-New Zealand citizens have generally been increasing since 1984, corresponding with the general increase in arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens. In the July 2010 year, there were 25,600 PLT departures of non-New Zealand citizens, up from 23,200 in the July 2009 year.

 Graph: Annual PLT migration of non-New Zealand citizens, July 2010.

Annual PLT migration by permit type

In the July 2010 year, 30,000 PLT arrivals were Australian or New Zealand citizens who did not require a permit to remain in New Zealand. Of the 51,900 migrants who did require a permit, 19,500 arrived on work permits, 15,100 arrived on student permits, 13,000 arrived on residence permits, and 3,800 arrived on visitor permits. Compared with the July 2009 year, there were fewer arrivals on each of these permit types, the biggest decrease being 3,600 fewer arrivals on work permits.

Recent international travel and migration articles

Statistics NZ has recently released a number of International travel and migration articles that can be accessed on the Statistics NZ website. The most recent articles are:

May 2010 International travel from New Zealand regions, 2009 analyses the number of departures, rate of travel, and characteristics of travellers from each of New Zealand's regions.
April 2010 New Zealand's International Migration Statistics, 1860–1921 provides some background to historical data recently released in Infoshare.
December 2009

Business Travel to and from New Zealand: 1989–2009 examines changes in the number and characteristics of people travelling to and from New Zealand for business over the past two decades.

 

For technical information contact:
Nicholas Thomson
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: demography@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...

International Travel and Migration: August 2010 will be released on 21 September 2010.