International Travel and Migration: November 2008

Commentary

Visitor arrivals

Monthly visitor arrivals

Short-term overseas visitor arrivals to New Zealand numbered 219,300 in November 2008, a decrease of 9,500 (4 percent) from November 2007 (228,800). The highest recorded number of visitor arrivals in a November month was 229,900 in November 2006.

The estimated average number of visitors in New Zealand per day in November 2008 was 131,800, up 1 percent from the average of 130,800 in November 2007. Estimated numbers of visitors in the country are calculated from the date of arrival and intended length of stay of sampled visitor arrivals. The average intended stay of visitors who arrived in November 2008 was 22 days, up from 21 days in November 2007, and the median (half stay shorter, and half stay longer than this duration) was nine days.

Annual visitor arrivals

During the November 2008 year, there were 2.454 million visitor arrivals, down 13,900 (1 percent) from the November 2007 year. A holiday was the main travel reason for 1.180 million visitor arrivals to New Zealand in the November 2008 year, down 33,500 (3 percent) from the previous year. Another 739,200 arrived to visit friends and relatives (up 26,700 or 4 percent), and 257,900 arrived for business (down 10,700 or 4 percent).

Graph, Annual Visitor Arrivals. Graph, Visitor Arrivals by Reason.

Note: Provisional international travel statistics, including weekly and four-weekly visitor arrival data, are available on the Statistics NZ website. This data is updated each week with the most recently available information on visitor arrivals from 10 major source countries.

Visitors by source country

In November 2008 compared with November 2007, fewer visitors arrived from Japan (down 6,900 or 46 percent). The decrease was driven by the cancellation of student charter flights to New Zealand. Around 4,500 visitors usually arrive in New Zealand on student charters from Japan each November.

For the month of November, there were also fewer visitors from Korea (down 3,800 or 43 percent), China (down 2,400 or 18 percent), and the United Kingdom (down 1,900 or 7 percent). More visitors arrived from Australia (up 1,400 or 2 percent) and Singapore (up 1,000 or 27 percent).

Graph, Visitors from Japan. Graph, Visitors from Australia.

In the year ended November 2008 compared with the year ended November 2007, more visitors arrived from Oceania (up 31,800 or 3 percent), Africa and the Middle East (up 5,600 or 13 percent) and the Americas (up 5,000 or 2 percent). Fewer visitors arrived from Asia (down 52,100 or 10 percent) and Europe (down 1,100 or less than 1 percent).

Australia (up 23,500 or 2 percent) provided the largest increase in visitor arrivals in the November 2008 year. More visitor arrivals were also recorded from Canada (up 6,300 or 13 percent) and South Africa (up 4,000 or 19 percent).

Fewer visitor arrivals were recorded from Korea (down 21,200 or 21 percent), Japan (down 19,300 or 16 percent), the United Kingdom (down 10,200 or 3 percent), China (down 7,700 or 6 percent), Taiwan (down 7,400 or 28 percent), and the United States (down 4,600 or 2 percent) in the November 2008 year. 

Note: Detailed visitor data will be available in the November 2008 edition of International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand, which can be ordered on the International visitor arrivals subscription page on the Statistics NZ website.

New Zealand-resident departures

Monthly resident departures

New Zealand residents departed on 155,200 short-term overseas trips in November 2008, down 4,300 (3 percent) from the 159,500 departures in November 2007. However, the number of resident departures in November 2007 was the highest recorded for a November month. Departures in November 2008 were 7,600 (5 percent) above the 147,600 resident departures in November 2006, and the second highest number recorded in a November month.

In November 2008, there were fewer trips to Australia (down 4,700 or 6 percent), the United States (down 900 or 15 percent) and Canada (down 600 or 46 percent). There were more trips to the Cook Islands (up 600 or 15 percent), Fiji (up 500 or 10 percent), and India (up 500 or 12 percent).

The estimated average number of New Zealand residents who were temporarily overseas during November 2008 was 89,600 per day, up less than 1 percent from the average of 89,200 in November 2007. Estimates of the number of residents overseas are calculated from the date of departure and intended length of absence of sampled resident departures. The average intended absence of residents who departed in November 2008 was 23 days, up from 21 days in November 2007, and the median was 10 days.

Graph, Monthly New Zealand Resident Short-term Departures.

Annual resident departures

Short-term departures of New Zealand residents in the November 2008 year numbered 1.979 million, up 8,500 (less than 1 percent) from the November 2007 year. More resident departures were recorded to Asia (up 14,200 or 6 percent), the Americas (up 7,800 or 6 percent), and Africa and the Middle East (up 3,100 or 10 percent). There were fewer departures to Oceania (down 16,600 or 1 percent) and Europe (down 6,700 or 4 percent).

By country, there were more trips to Fiji (up 5,200 or 6 percent), China (up 3,900 or 7 percent), the Cook Islands (up 3,400 or 7 percent), India (up 3,300 or 13 percent), and Canada (up 3,100 or 18 percent) in the November 2008 year. Trips to Australia (950,200), the most popular destination, were down 29,600 (3 percent) from the previous year. There were also fewer trips to France (down 5,000 or 26 percent). However, numbers of New Zealand residents travelling to France in the November 2007 year (19,200) were boosted by the Rugby World Cup held there in September and October 2007. There were 2,800 more New Zealand residents departing for France in the year ended November 2008 (14,200) than in the November 2006 year (11,400).

A holiday was the main travel reason for 828,100 New Zealand residents who departed in the November 2008 year, down 3,500 (less than 1 percent) from the previous year. Another 632,400 were departing to visit friends and relatives (up 14,100 or 2 percent). Departures for business purposes (283,800) were down 4,500 (2 percent) from the year ended November 2007.

Graph, Annual Resident Departures. Graph, Resident Departures by Reason.

Note: Provisional international travel statistics, including weekly and four-weekly resident departure data, are available on the Statistics NZ website. This data is updated each week with the most recently available information on resident departures to 10 major destination countries.

Permanent and long-term migration

Definition

Permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals include people who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus New Zealand residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more. Included in the former group are people with New Zealand residency, as well as students and holders of work permits. PLT departures include New Zealand residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus overseas visitors departing New Zealand after a stay of 12 months or more.

Monthly PLT migration

PLT arrivals exceeded departures by 1,000 in November 2008, down on the net PLT inflow of 1,800 in November 2007. The number of PLT arrivals was the same, but 800 more PLT departures were recorded in November 2008 compared with the previous November.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, PLT departures exceeded PLT arrivals by 600 in November 2008. In September and October 2008, PLT arrivals matched PLT departures.

In November 2008, there were net inflows of migrants from the United Kingdom (1,400) and India (300). There was a net outflow of 2,600 PLT migrants to Australia, up from the outflow of 1,900 in November 2007.

Annual PLT migration

In the year ended November 2008, there were 87,400 PLT arrivals, up 4,800 (6 percent) from the November 2007 year. Over the same period, there were 83,800 PLT departures, up 7,800 (10 percent). As a result, net PLT migration was 3,600 in the November 2008 year, down from 6,600 in the November 2007 year. The latest figure is the lowest for any 12-month period since the October 2001 year (1,700).

Graph, Annual PLT Migration.  Graph, Annual Net PLT Migration.

The net PLT migration gain of 3,600 in the year ended November 2008 is below the annual average of 11,800 recorded for the December years from 1990–2007. Net PLT migration varied substantially within this 18-year period. The net gain peaked at 30,200 in the April 1996 year and again at 42,500 in the May 2003 year. Net outflows were generally experienced during 1998–2001, with the highest being a net loss of 13,200 people in the February 2001 year.

Annual PLT migration by citizenship

A net inflow of 41,100 non-New Zealand citizens and a net outflow of 37,500 New Zealand citizens were recorded in the year ended November 2008. The majority of the net outflow of New Zealand citizens was to Australia (35,200), followed by the United Arab Emirates (600) and Canada (500).

Compared with the November 2007 year, PLT arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens were up 4,500 and PLT arrivals of New Zealand citizens were up 300. There were 6,100 more PLT departures of New Zealand citizens and 1,600 more PLT departures of non-New Zealand citizens. Changes in non-New Zealand citizen departures are often related to changes in non-New Zealand citizen arrivals a few years earlier. Similarly, changes in New Zealand citizen arrivals are often related to changes in New Zealand citizen departures a few years earlier.

 Graph, Annual PLT Migration by Citizenship. Graph, Annual Net PLT Migration by Citizenship.

Annual PLT migration by country

In the year ended November 2008, there was a net inflow of 7,500 migrants from the United Kingdom, up from 7,400 in the November 2007 year. The net inflow from India was 5,200, up from 3,500 in the November 2007 year and 2,100 in the November 2006 year. There were also net PLT inflows from the Philippines (3,700), South Africa (2,900), Fiji and China (each 2,700).

The net PLT outflow to Australia was 35,300 in the November 2008 year, up from 27,200 in the November 2007 year. The November 2008 year net outflow is the highest recorded, and exceeds previous peaks in the January 1989 year (33,700) and the December 1979 year (33,400). The latest net outflow resulted from 48,500 PLT departures to Australia, partly offset by 13,200 PLT arrivals from Australia. Almost two-thirds of the PLT arrivals from Australia were New Zealand citizens (8,300).

The net outflow to Australia was spread across both age and occupation groups. Migrants aged 15–29 years accounted for 40 percent (14,200) of the net outflow to Australia in the November 2008 year, while the 0–14-year age group (8,100) and the 30–44-year age group (8,000) each contributed 23 percent of the outflow. The 45–59-year age group (4,500) contributed a further 13 percent, and the remaining 1 percent (500) were aged 60 years and over.

Net outflows to Australia were recorded in each broad occupation group, led by trades workers (2,400), service and sales workers and professionals (each 2,300). There was also a net outflow to Australia of 14,500 people without an occupation, of which most were children or students.

PLT migration by permit type

Statistics NZ is now releasing the permit type of people arriving into New Zealand as part of its International Travel and Migration dataset. Permit type is available from July 2003 for short-term overseas visitor arrivals and PLT migrants. Permit type will not be available for arrivals of short-term New Zealand-resident travellers.

Background information about permit types, and analysis of June year data from 2004 to 2008 is available in an article entitled Arrivals by permit type, available on the International travel and migration articles page of the Statistics NZ website.

In the November 2008 year, 27,700 PLT arrivals were Australian or New Zealand citizens who did not require a permit to remain in New Zealand. Of PLT arrivals who did require a permit, 23,900 arrived on work permits, 15,300 arrived on student permits, 14,500 arrived on residence permits, and 5,400 arrived on visitor's permits. Compared with the November 2007 year, there were more PLT arrivals on student permits and work permits (both up 3,000), but fewer arrivals on residence permits (down 1,300). The majority of residence approvals in recent years have been granted onshore, to people who arrived on other permit types.

Recent international travel and migration articles

Statistics NZ has recently released three articles on international travel and migration topics. These can be accessed on the International travel and migration articles page of the Statistics NZ website.

  • Non-response for international travel and migration variables examines non-response rates for variables captured from arrival and departure cards.
  • Short-term New Zealand traveller departures to Pacific island countries examines departures over the last decade to Fiji, the Cook Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island and French Polynesia.
  • Arrivals by permit type introduces the newly available permit type data. It includes background notes about permit types, as well as data analysis.

Infoshare and INFOS databases

Statistics NZ recently released a free-of-charge online database, Infoshare (www.stats.govt.nz/infoshare) that gives access to a range of time-series data. Infoshare contains a substantial number of international travel and migration data series. These series are currently available through two subjects within Infoshare:

  • International travel and migration (under Tourism on the Browse page)
  • External migration (under Population on the Browse page).

The international travel and migration subject is under development, with more detailed cross-tabulations being progressively added. This will eventually replace the external migration subject, but both will remain available until development of the international travel and migration subject is complete. Both subjects remain available in the INFOS database (for subscribers only). Detailed visitor arrival and resident departure families have now been released.

For technical information contact:
Ian Richards or Nick Thomson
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: demography@stats.govt.nz  

Next release ...

International Travel and Migration: December 2008 will be released on 4 February 2009.