Estimates and projections

Population estimates give the best available measure of the size and composition of the population usually living in an area. Estimates are derived from the latest census data with adjustments for net census undercount, residents temporarily overseas on census night, and births, deaths, and migration since the census.

Population projections give an indication of the future size and composition of the population. Multiple projection series are produced using different combinations of assumptions about future fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.

Population estimates are for dates in the past, whereas projections are for dates in the future.

Releases

Estimates

National population estimates – next release 15 August 2013 (for table updates for the March, September, and December quarters, see Infoshare)
Subnational population estimates (regional council and territorial authority areas) – next release 22 October 2013 (provisional 2013 estimates)
Area unit population estimates – next release December 2013
Māori population estimates – next release 14 November 2013
National dwelling and household estimates – next release 5 July 2013

Projections

National population projections – next release late 2014
National ethnic population projections – next release 2015
National labour force projections – next release 2015
National family and household projections – next release 2015–16
Subnational population projections (regional council and territorial authority areas) – next release late 2014
Area unit population projections – next release 2015
Subnational ethnic population projections – next release 2015–16
Subnational family and household projections – next release 2015–16

Data

National population estimates – by age and sex (Infoshare), next release 15 August 2013
Subnational population estimates tables
Historical population estimates tables – next update 15 August 2013
Population estimates at 30 June 1996, 2001 and 2006 – by age, sex, ethnic group and subnational area (NZ.Stat)
Population estimates at 30 June 2006–12 – by age group, sex and subnational area (NZ.Stat)
New Zealand: An Urban/Rural Profile Update – estimates and projections
Population projections – by age, sex, ethnic group and subnational area (NZ.Stat)
Labour force projections – by age and sex (NZ.Stat)
Subnational family and household projections – additional tables

Reports and articles

How will New Zealand's ageing population affect the property market? – report
Planning for the future: Structural change in New Zealand’s population, labour force, and productivity – paper
Demographic projections from Statistics New Zealand: Aims, methods, and results – paper
Could New Zealand reach 7 million people by 2061? – article
Estimating local populations after the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes – paper
Evaluation of alternative data sources for population estimates – report
Projections overview – summary of projection results
Frequently asked questions – population statistics
Local population trends – graphs and tables
Interactive population pyramid for New Zealand – graph
Moving age-sex pyramids – graphs and tables
Experimental stochastic population projections for New Zealand: 2009(base)–2111 – paper
Birth and population trends: how predictable are they? – article
How accurate are population projections? – paper
Demographic aspects of New Zealand's ageing population – paper
New Zealand family and household projections, 2001(base)–2021 – technical report
Coping with the discontinuity in population estimates – article
Effects of changing from de facto population estimates to resident population estimates – article
Adjustment of post-censal population estimates for census undercount – report
Demographic Trends – report

Information about data

Population estimates – methods
Dwelling and household estimates – methods
Demographic projections – methods and assumptions
Subnational net migration estimates – methods

Search for more information about estimates and projections.

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