Estimates and projections

Population estimates give the best available measure of the size and composition of the population usually living in an area. Estimates are derived from the latest census data with adjustments for net census undercount, residents temporarily overseas on census night, and births, deaths, and migration since the census.

Population projections give an indication of the future size and composition of the population. Multiple projection series are produced using different combinations of assumptions about future fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.

Population estimates are for dates in the past, whereas projections are for dates in the future.

New stochastic projections coming

A new set of New Zealand population projections (2011-base) will be released on 19 July 2012. Aside from the usual review of all projection assumptions relating to fertility, mortality and migration, the new projections will incorporate a stochastic methodology for the first time. The new method will be largely based on that described in the 2011 working paper Experimental stochastic population projections for New Zealand: 2009(base)–2111.

People familiar with past projections will get nothing less than they do currently: a mid-range projection and alternative ‘what if’ scenarios. However, a stochastic approach will provide some quantification of uncertainty for each and every projected characteristic. These estimates of uncertainty will assist the interpretation of the projections.

Detailed projection results will continue to be available via Table Builder. A similar stochastic approach is planned for the national labour force projections update to be released on 29 August 2012.

For more information, contact Senior Demographer Kim Dunstan, 03 964 8330, email demography@stats.govt.nz.

Releases

Estimates

• National population estimates – next release 14 August 2012
• Subnational population estimates – next release 23 October 2012 
• Māori population estimates – next release 15 November 2012
• National dwelling and household estimates – next release 6 July 2012

Projections

• National population projections – next release 19 July 2012 
• National ethnic population projections – next release 2015
• National labour force projections – next release 29 August 2012
• National family and household projections – next release 2015–16
• Subnational population projections (regional council and territorial authority areas) – next release 8 October 2012
• Area unit population projections – next release 2015 (with update of Christchurch, Waimakariri, and Selwyn area units in December 2012)
• Subnational ethnic population projections – next release 2015–6
• Subnational family and household projections – next release 2015–6

Data

• National population estimates 
• Subnational population estimates
• Historical population estimates 
• Population estimates at 30 June 1996, 2001 and 2006 – by age, sex, ethnic group and subnational area (Table Builder) 
• Population estimates at 30 June 2006–11 – by age group, sex and subnational area (Table Builder)
• New Zealand: An Urban/Rural Profile Update – estimates and projections
• Population projections – by age, sex, ethnic group and subnational area (Table Builder)
• Subnational family and household projections – additional tables 

Reports and articles

• Estimating local populations after the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes - paper
• Evaluation of alternative data sources for population estimates – report
• Projections overview – summary of projection results
• Frequently asked questions – population statistics
• Local population trends – graphs and tables
• Moving age-sex pyramids – graphs and tables
• Experimental stochastic population projections for New Zealand: 2009(base)–2111 – paper
• Birth and population trends: how predictable are they? – article 
• How accurate are population projections? – paper 
• Demographic aspects of New Zealand's ageing population – paper 
• New Zealand family and household projections, 2001(base)–2021 – technical report
• Effects of changing from de facto population estimates to resident population estimates – article
• Adjustment of post-censal population estimates for census undercount – report
• Demographic Trends – report

Information about data

• Population estimates – methods
• Dwelling and household estimates – methods
• Demographic projections – methods and assumptions
• Subnational net migration estimates – methods

Search for more information about estimates and projections.