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National Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  21 May 2015
Key facts

National ethnic population projections indicate New Zealand's future population for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups.

The projections indicate a 90 percent chance that New Zealand's:

  • 'European or Other' population (3.31 million in 2013) will increase to 3.43–3.62 million in 2025 and to 3.43–3.82 million in 2038.
  • Māori population (0.69 million in 2013) will increase to 0.83–0.91 million in 2025 and to 1.00–1.18 million in 2038.
  • Asian population (0.54 million in 2013) will increase to 0.81–0.92 million in 2025 and to 1.06–1.26 million in 2038.
  • Pacific population (0.34 million in 2013) will increase to 0.44–0.48 million in 2025 and to 0.54–0.65 million in 2038.

The projections also indicate:

  • The Māori, Asian, and Pacific populations will continue to grow faster than New Zealand's population overall, so will increase their share of the total population.
  • The number of people identifying with Asian ethnicities is likely to exceed the number identifying with the Māori ethnicity from the mid-2020s.
  • All four ethnic populations will age, with increasing numbers and proportions of their populations at the older ages.

Graph, Projected 'European or Other' and Asian populations, 2013 to 2038. Graph, Projected Māori and Pacific populations, 2013 to 2038.

Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician
ISSN 1178-0592
21 May 2015

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