Estimated resident population at 30 June 2009
The estimated resident population of New Zealand was 4,315,800 at 30 June 2009, with 2,117,500 males and 2,198,300 females. At 30 June 2009, there were 96 males for every 100 females.
Annual population change
In the June 2009 year, the estimated resident population grew by 46,900 (1.1 percent), compared with 40,600 (1.0 percent) in the previous June year. The population growth in the June 2009 year was slightly lower than the average annual increase of 48,100 (1.2 percent) recorded during the 10-year period from June 1999 to June 2009.
The population growth for the June 2009 year resulted from a natural increase (excess of births over deaths) of 34,400 and a net permanent and long-term migration gain of 12,500. The level of net permanent and long-term migration was the highest for a June year since 2004 (22,000). Historically, natural increase has been the dominant element in population growth. Over the last 40 years, natural increase accounted for four-fifths of New Zealand's total population growth. During the June 2009 year, natural increase accounted for just under three-quarters of population growth.
Quarterly population change
During the June 2009 quarter, New Zealand's estimated resident population grew by 10,100 (0.2 percent). This growth resulted from a natural increase of 8,200, and a net permanent and long-term migration gain of 1,900. In comparison, natural increase was higher (8,500) for the June 2008 quarter but there was a net migration loss (3,200), resulting in quarterly population growth of 5,300 (0.1 percent) in that quarter.
Median age
New Zealand has an ageing population because of a shift to sustained low fertility and low mortality rates. This is also observed in other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. At 30 June 2009, half New Zealand's population was over the age of 36.5 years, compared with a median age of 34.0 years a decade earlier.
The median age for males is now 35.5 years, while for females it is 37.4 years. Over the past decade, the median age has increased 2.3 years for males and 2.7 years for females. The lower median age for males reflects their lower life expectancy of 78.2 years, compared with 82.2 years for females (New Zealand abridged life table, 2006–2008).
Changes in age composition
The age composition of New Zealand's population has changed over the past decade. In the 10 years ended 30 June 2009 year, the number of children (aged 0–14 years) grew to 891,100, an average annual increase of 1,400 (0.2 percent). The increase for the year ended 30 June 2009 of 1,700 (0.2 percent) was just above the annual average for the decade. At 30 June 2009, children accounted for 21 percent of the New Zealand population, down from 23 percent at 30 June 1999.
At 30 June 2009, the population aged 15–39 years reached 1,484,600, an increase of 8,900 (0.6 percent) compared with the June 2008 figure. In the 10 years ended June 2009, the average annual increase for this age group was lower, at 7,100 (0.5 percent). The population aged 15–39 accounted for 34 percent of the New Zealand population at 30 June 2009, down from 37 percent a decade earlier.
Thirty-two percent of the population were aged 40–64 years at 30 June 2009, up from 29 percent in 1999. This age group increased by 21,500 (1.6 percent) in the year ended 30 June 2009, to reach 1,387,400, which was below the average annual increase of 29,100 (2.4 percent) for the 10 years ended June 2009.
During the June 2009 year, the population aged 65–79 years increased by 10,300 (2.6 percent) to reach 406,700. In the 10 years ended June 2009 the population aged 65–79 years grew at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent (6,200). The proportion of the population aged 65–79 years was 9.4 percent at 30 June 2009, up from 9.0 percent in 1999.
There was also a slight increase in the proportion of the population aged 80 years and over (80+), from 2.7 percent in 1999 to 3.4 percent in June 2009. The 80+ population reached 146,000 at 30 June 2009, an average annual increase of 4,200 (3.5 percent) over the decade. The size and growth rate of this age group varied significantly by sex. The average annual growth rate for males for the decade was 4.9 percent, compared with 2.7 percent for females. In the year ended 30 June 2009, the male population in the 80+ age group increased by 5.0 percent (2,700), to reach 56,200, while the female population increased by 2.1 percent (1,900), to 89,800.
International comparison: percentage of population aged 65+
The percentage of the population that is aged 65+ is rising in all OECD countries and is expected to continue doing so. These trends have a number of implications for public and private spending on pensions and health care and for economic growth and social welfare generally. One of the reasons for a rise in the average age of populations in many OECD countries is a slowing rate of natural increase (the excess of births over deaths).
In 2009, the estimated population aged 65+ is 15 percent of the total population of all OECD countries. Selected OECD and non-OECD countries are included in the graph above. Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom, for example, all have a higher percentage than the OECD average with 23 percent, 20 percent, and 16 percent of their respective populations being aged 65+. OECD countries with a lower percentage than the OECD average include Ireland (12 percent), New Zealand (13 percent), United States (13 percent), and Canada (14 percent). The percentage of the World's population that is aged 65+ is 7.6 percent, which is lower than the percentage in China (8.2 percent) but higher than the percentage in India (5.3 percent).
The percentage of the population that is aged 65+ in 2030 is projected to increase under the principal or mid-range projection series for each country included in the graph. The OECD population aged 65+ is projected to reach 22 percent of the total population while, in contrast, the percentage of the World's population aged 65+ is projected to increase 4 percentage points to 12 percent in 2030. Of the selected countries, Korea has the greatest projected increase (14 percentage points), reaching 24 percent in 2030. Japan, Italy, and the Netherlands are all expected to have a higher than the OECD average percentage of their population aged 65+ with 32 percent, 27 percent, and 23 percent, respectively. For further explanation of the international data comparability see the technical notes section of this release.
Population clock
Statistics NZ's online population clock gives a real-time approximation of the estimated resident population of New Zealand. The population clock uses the latest quarterly estimated resident population, and estimates for the expected number of births, deaths, and net migration during the following quarter. The settings for each component (births, deaths, and net migration) are derived by converting the quarterly estimated totals into a 'per minute' figure, making allowance for the number of days per quarter. The population clock can be viewed on the Statistics NZ website: www.stats.govt.nz.
Different population concepts
Users of population statistics need to be aware that there are three main population measures produced by Statistics NZ: the census night population count, the census usually resident population count, and the estimated resident population. The population counts published from the census are not comparable with the estimated resident population. The estimated resident population includes adjustments for net census undercount and for New Zealand residents temporarily overseas on census night. For more information see the technical notes of this release.
Final figures
The population estimates for the June 2009 year quoted above, and contained in the appended tables, are provisional. Processing of final statistics will be completed in November 2009. In addition, population estimates after 30 June 2006 will be revised following results from the next Census of Population and Dwellings.
For technical information contact:
Joel Watkins or Esther Hogenhout
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: demography@stats.govt.nz
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National Population Estimates: September 2009 quarter will be released on 12 November 2009.