National Population Projections: 2011(base)–2061

Embargoed until 10:45am  –  19 July 2012

Key facts

National population projections give an indication of New Zealand's future population.

The projections indicate:

  • Population growth will slow as New Zealand’s population ages.
  • The gap between the number of births and deaths will narrow.
  • There is roughly a 1 in 3 chance that deaths could exceed births in 2061.

The median projection indicates:  

  • New Zealand's population (4.4 million in 2012) will increase to 5.4 million in 2036 and 6.0 million in 2061.
  • The population aged 65+ (600,000 in 2012) will increase to 1.2 million in 2036 and 1.5 million in 2061.
  • The proportion of the population aged 65+ (14 percent in 2012) will increase to 23 percent in 2036 and 26 percent in 2061.

Graph, New Zealand population, from 1951 to 2061.

Graph, Age distribution of population, from 1951 to 2061.

Note: The break in data between 1990 and 1991 denotes a change from the de facto population concept to the resident population concept.

 

 

Geoff Bascand
Government Statistician
19 July 2012
ISSN 1178-0584