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Subnational Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038 update
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  03 October 2017
Key facts

Key facts

Subnational ethnic population projections indicate the future population living in New Zealand's 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas (TAs), and 21 Auckland local board areas (LBAs) for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian, and Pacific.

The low, medium, and high growth projections indicate that between 2013 and 2038:

  • The population growth rate for all four ethnic groups will slow in all areas.
  • All ethnic populations will gradually age, with more people aged 65 years and over.

The medium projection indicates that between 2013 and 2038:

  • The Asian and Pacific ethnic populations will grow in all regions and TAs.
  • The Māori ethnic population will grow in all regions and 64 TAs, and decline in 3 TAs.
  • The 'European or Other' ethnic population will grow in 15 regions and decline in 1; and grow in 51 TAs, decline in 16 TAs.
  • The Māori, Asian, and Pacific ethnic populations will all increase their share of the total population in most regions, because their growth rates are higher than the region’s total population.

Graph, Projected 'European or Other' average annual population change, by regional council area 2013(base)–2038.  Graph, Projected Māori average annual population change, by regional council area 2013(base)–2038.

Graph, Projected Asian average annual population change, by regional council area 2013(base)–2038.  Graph, Projected Pacific average annual population change, by regional council area 2013(base)–2038.

Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician
ISSN 2463-3178 
3 October 2017

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