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More estimates and projections reports and articles

This page continues from the estimates and projections page, which has the most recent information.

Reports and articles

Planning for the future: Structural change in New Zealand’s population, labour force, and productivity (published 2012)
An overview of the demographic projections at the heart of fiscal sustainability.

Demographic projections from Statistics New Zealand: Aims, methods, and results (published 2012)
An explanation of the demographic projections we produce, with a focus on the national population and labour force projections released in 2012. 

Could New Zealand reach 7 million people by 2061? (published 2012)
Information about the projected population of New Zealand in 2061, using the 2011-base population projections.

Estimating local populations after the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes (published 2011)
Information about the data sources used to produce annual subnational population estimates following the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes.

Evaluation of alternative data sources for population estimates (published 2011)
An overview of existing administrative and commercial data sources that might be useful for producing our population estimates.

Local population trends 
Graphs, tables, and supporting notes to show past and likely future trends in population change for New Zealand territorial authorities and regional councils.

Experimental stochastic population projections for New Zealand: 2009(base)–2111 (published 2011)
A paper outlining a stochastic method for population projections, including results from a 2009 base.

Birth and population trends: how predictable are they? (published 2009)
An article about the accuracy of official population projections and the ability of demographers to anticipate population trends.

How accurate are population projections? (published 2008)
An evaluation of our population projections from 1991 to 2006.

Demographic aspects of New Zealand's ageing population (published 2006)
A summary of the demographic aspects of population ageing in New Zealand, based on the 2001- and 2004-base population projections.

New Zealand family and household projections, 2001(base)–2021 (published 2004)
A report presenting the methodology and results of the first official set of family and household projections derived by Statistics NZ, 2001-base.

Coping with the discontinuity in population estimates (published 2013)
An article providing background and advice about the discontinuity in population estimates in 1991.

Effects of changing from de facto population estimates to resident population estimates (published 1999)
An article outlining the effects of changes made to the estimates of population in 1991.

Adjustment of post-censal population estimates for census undercount (published 1998)
A report describing and discussing the methodology developed for adjusting the population base following the 1996 census.

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