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National Population Projections: 2004 (base) - 2051
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  16 December 2004
Highlights

The following highlights are based on series 5: medium fertility, medium mortality and long-term annual net migration of 10,000.

  • New Zealand's population is projected to reach 5.05 million by 2051, an increase of almost one million or 24 percent from the estimated resident population of 4.06 million at 30 June 2004.
  • The population growth rate will slow steadily, because of the narrowing gap between births and deaths.
  • The age structure of the population will undergo significant changes, resulting in fewer children, more older people and further ageing of the population.
  • Half of New Zealand's population will be 46 years and older by 2051, compared with a median age of 35 years in 2004.
  • By 2051, 1.33 million people (one in four New Zealanders) will be aged 65 years and over, compared with 490,000 people (12 percent of the population) in 2004
 Graph, New Zealand Population 1951-2051.  Age Distribution of Population 1951-2051.
Brian Pink

16 December 2004

Government Statistician

Cat 31.902 Set 04/05 – 107

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