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These pages provide an overview of the various demographic projections produced by Statistics New Zealand. The projections are for the total New Zealand population, local and regional populations, various broad ethnic groups, families and households, and the labour force. Each overview page highlights the main features from a set of projections, which are derived to help communities, businesses, and government in planning for the future. You will find links to more detailed information at the top of each page.

Nature of projections

  1. These demographic projections are not predictions. They represent the statistical outcomes of various combinations of selected assumptions about future changes in the dynamics of population change. These assumptions are formulated from the latest demographic trends and patterns, as well as international experiences.
  2. Future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration and their determinants are uncertain, so Statistics NZ derives a range of projections. However, because of space restrictions, only the mid-range projection is given for each. In general, the mid-range projection conveys the broad features of likely future dynamics and patterns.
  3. The projections do not take into account non-demographic factors such as war, catastrophe, and major government decisions (eg changes to immigration policy, changes to age of eligibility for national superannuation) that may invalidate the projections. Population trends and patterns are monitored regularly and the projections are updated every 2–3 years to include new demographic evidence and developments to methods.

The main prospects in the coming decades are for continuing low fertility, slower population growth, further longevity gains, smaller households, increasing ethnic diversity, an ageing population, an older labour force, and a further concentration of population in the northern North Island.

Notes

  1. Derived figures, such as percentage changes, are produced using data of greater precision than what is published. The figures may differ slightly from those derived using rounded data.
  2. All projection data has a reference date of 30 June.

Page updated 19 February 2016 

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