For detailed projections see:
The projections for the 'European or Other' ethnic group include people who belong to the 'European' or 'Other ethnicity' groups in level 1 of the Statistical standard for ethnicity. If a person belongs to both the 'European' and 'Other ethnicity' groups they are counted only once. Almost all people in the 'Other ethnicity' group belong to the 'New Zealander' subgroup.
The 'European or Other' ethnic group is expected to grow in 11 of the 16 regions under the medium projection. Fewer people will identify with a 'European or Other' ethnicity in Hawke's Bay, Manawatu-Wanganui, Marlborough, West Coast, and Southland by 2038.
Territorial authority areas
Of the 67 territorial authority areas (TAs), 37 are projected to have an increase in their 'European or Other' population over the 25 years to 2038. Selwyn district (up 32,000 from 44,000 in 2013) and Christchurch city (up 25,000 from 302,000 in 2013) are projected to have the highest numerical increases.
Christchurch city had the largest 'European or Other' population in 2013, followed by Wellington city (153,000). These two cities will maintain the largest 'European or Other' populations by 2038.
Auckland local board areas
Auckland’s 14 of 21 local board areas (LBAs) are projected to have an increase in their 'European or Other' population over the 25 years to 2038. Franklin (up 34,000 from 58,000 in 2013) and Hibiscus and Bays (up 30,000 from 83,000) are projected to have the highest numerical increases.
Drivers of growth
The 'European or Other' population is likely to reduce its share of the total population in all regions, most TAs, and Auckland LBAs due to relatively low growth rates.
The lower growth rates can be attributed to an increasingly older age structure – meaning fewer births (because of fewer women in the childbearing ages) and more deaths (despite increasing life expectancy) – and lower momentum for future population growth compared with the Māori, Pacific, and Asian populations.
Page updated 19 February 2016