Projections overview

Subnational European or Other projections

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The projections of the 'European or Other (including New Zealander)' ethnic group include people who belong to the 'European' or 'Other Ethnicity' groups defined in Level One of the Standard Classification of Ethnicity 2005. If a person belongs to both the 'European' and 'Other Ethnicity' groups they have only been counted once. Almost all people in the 'Other Ethnicity' group belong to the 'New Zealander' sub-group.

Two-thirds of territorial authority areas are projected to have an increase in their 'European or Other (including New Zealander)' population during the 15-year projection period to 2021. However, the proportion of people in each area who identify with a 'European or Other' ethnicity is projected to drop in most areas. This reflects a combination of continued fertility rates below the national average, assumptions of net migration outflow for most areas, and an older age structure. The increasingly older age structure of the 'European or Other' population means fewer births (because of fewer women in the childbearing ages), more deaths, and lower momentum for future population growth compared with the Māori, Pacific, and Asian populations.

Rodney district (up 24,000, from 86,000 in 2006 to 110,000 in 2021), Tauranga city (up 22,000, from 93,000 to 115,000) and Auckland city (up 22,000, from 256,000 to 278,000) are projected to have the largest numerical increases among territorial authority areas. Queenstown-Lakes district is projected to have the largest percentage increase, up 2.4 percent a year, on average, from 22,000 in 2006 to 32,000 in 2021.

Among the territorial authority areas, Christchurch city (313,000) had the largest 'European or Other' population in 2006, followed by Auckland city (256,000). These two cities will maintain the largest 'European or Other' populations by 2021.