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Subnational 'European or Other' projections

Information release | NZ.Stat

The projections of the 'European or Other' ethnic group include people who belong to the 'European' or 'Other Ethnicity' groups defined in Level One of the Standard Classification of Ethnicity 2005. If a person belongs to both the 'European' and 'Other Ethnicity' groups they have only been counted once. Almost all people in the 'Other Ethnicity' group belong to the 'New Zealander' sub-group.

The 'European or Other' ethnic group is expected to grow in 11 of the 16 regions under the medium projection. Fewer people will identify with a 'European or Other' ethnicity in Hawke's Bay, Manawatu-Wanganui, Marlborough, West Coast, and Southland by 2038.

Of the 67 territorial authority areas (TAs), 37 are projected to have an increase in their 'European or Other' population over the 25-year projection period to 2038. Selwyn district (up 32,000 from 44,000 in 2013) and Christchurch city (up 25,000 from 302,000 in 2013) are projected to have the highest numerical increase.

Of the 21 Auckland local board areas (LBAs), 14 are projected to have an increase in their 'European or Other' population over the 25-year projection period to 2038. Franklin (up 34,000 from 58,000 in 2013) and Hibiscus and Bays (up 30,000 from 83,000) are projected to have the highest numerical increase. 

The 'European or Other' population is likely to reduce its share of the total population in all regions, most TAs, and all Auckland local board areas (LBAs) due to its relatively low growth rates. These lower growth rates can be attributed to an increasingly older age structure – meaning fewer births (because of fewer women in the childbearing ages) and more deaths (despite increasing life expectancy) – and lower momentum for future population growth compared with the Māori, Pacific, and Asian populations.

Among TAs, Christchurch city (302,000) had the largest 'European or Other' population in 2013, followed by Wellington city (153,000). These two cities will maintain the largest 'European or Other' populations by 2038 under the medium projection.

Page updated 13 October 2015 

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