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National population projections | Subnational population projections | Area unit population projections | National ethnic population projections
The latest National Population Projections have as a base the estimated resident population of New Zealand at 30 June 2006, and cover the period to 2061 at one-year intervals.
Nine alternative series have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. Users can make their own judgement as to which projection series is/are most suitable for their purposes. However, at the time of release, Statistics New Zealand considers the mid-range projection series 5 the most suitable for assessing future population changes. Series 5 assumes:
- Fertility: the total fertility rate will decrease to 1.9 births per woman by 2026 and then remain constant.
- Mortality: life expectancy at birth will increase to 84.5 years for males and 88.0 years for females by 2061.
- Migration: a long-run annual net migration gain of 10,000 people from 2010.
The other projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from changes in the assumptions for each of the components of population change. Series 4, 5 and 6 can be used to assess the effect of the different migration assumptions; series 3, 5 and 7 allow for comparative mortality analysis; and series 2, 5 and 8 allow for comparative fertility analysis.
Series 1 and 9 give the lowest and highest projected populations, respectively, based on the adopted assumptions. Series 1 uses low fertility, high mortality and low net migration. Series 9 uses high fertility, low mortality and high net migration.
National population projections tables
Additional information
More information about the projections, including projection assumptions, is available in the National Population Projections Information Releases and Information about the Demographic Projections.
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The latest Subnational Population Projections have as a base the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals.
Three alternative series (designated low, medium and high) have been produced for each area using different fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. At the time of release, the medium projection series is considered the most suitable for assessing future population change and is consistent with series 5 of the 2006-base National Population Projections released on 24 October 2007.
The low and high projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of any series of the National Population Projections as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area rather than at the collective national level. The low projection series uses low fertility, high mortality and low net migration for each area. The high projection series uses high fertility, low mortality and high net migration for each area.
Subnational population projections tables
Information about rounding
Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.
The rounding of population figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules that have been applied are outlined below.
|
Total population size of geographic area |
Rounding of single year of age and five-year age group cells |
Rounding of broad age group, total (all ages), births, deaths and natural increase cells |
|
Less than 2,000 |
5 |
10 |
|
2,000 to 9,999 |
10 |
10 |
|
10,000 to 19,999 |
10 |
50 |
|
20,000 or more |
10 |
100 |
For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.
Additional information
More information about the projections, including projection assumptions, is available in the Subnational Population Projections Information Releases and Information about the Demographic Projections.
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New 2006-base area unit population projections, including projections by five-year age group and sex, are available from Table Builder as part of the Making More Information Freely Available (MIFA) initiative. The area unit population projections will be released progressively as they become available, and projections for all area units will be available by September 2008. The reason for taking a progressive approach is to make as much data available as soon as possible, and thereby meet the needs of some customers earlier than we otherwise could. A considerable amount of work is required for each individual area.
The area unit population projections released so far are outlined in the table below. This table will be updated when additional projections are released.
| Release date |
Scope of release |
| 11 April 2008 |
Population projections for area units in 14 territorial authority areas: Hauraki District, Tauranga City, Kawerau District, Opotiki District, Hastings District, Central Hawke's Bay District, Tararua District, Horowhenua District, Carterton District, South Wairarapa District, Waimakariri District, Mackenzie District, Chatham Islands Territory and Queenstown-Lakes District. |
| 29 May 2008 |
Population projections for area units in 20 territorial authority areas: Far North District, Whangarei District, Kaipara District, Thames-Coromandel District, Hamilton City, Waipa District, South Waikato District, Waitomo District, Western Bay of Plenty District, Napier City, Stratford District, Kapiti Coast District, Masterton District, Marlborough District, Kaikoura District, Christchurch City, Selwyn District, Ashburton District, Central Otago District and Clutha District. |
| 1 July 2008 |
Population projections for area units in 7 territorial authority areas: North Shore City, Waitakere City, Franklin District, Wairoa District, Manawatu District, Porirua City and Nelson City |
| 25 July 2008 |
Population projections for area units in 14 territorial authority areas: Rodney District, Matamata-Piako District, Otorohanga District, Taupo District, Whakatane District, New Plymouth District, Ruapehu District, Lower Hutt City, Grey District, Westland District, Hurunui District, Waimate District, Waitaki District and Gore District. |
| 29 August 2008 |
Population projections for area units in 13 territorial authority areas: Auckland City, Papakura District, Waikato District, Gisborne District, South Taranaki District, Wanganui District, Palmerston North City, Wellington City, Tasman District, Buller District, Timaru District, Southland District and Invercargill City. |
The new area unit population projections have the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006 as a base, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals.
Three alternative series (designated low, medium and high) have been produced for each area unit using different fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. Users can choose the projection series most suitable for their purposes. However, at the time of release, the medium series is considered the most suitable for assessing future population change and is consistent with series 5 of the 2006-base National Population Projections released on 24 October 2007 and the medium series of the 2006-base Subnational Population Projections (regions, cities and districts) released on 3 December 2007.
The low and high projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of any series of the national population projections or subnational population projections (regions, cities and districts) as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area unit. As a result, low and high population projections at the area unit level do not necessarily sum to low and high population projections at broader geographic levels. The low projection series uses low fertility, high mortality and low net migration for each area unit. The high projection series uses high fertility, low mortality and high net migration for each area unit.
Area unit population projections tables
Information about rounding
Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.
The rounding of population figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules that have been applied are outlined below.
|
Total population size of geographic area |
Rounding of single year of age and five-year age group cells |
Rounding of broad age group, total (all ages), births, deaths and natural increase cells |
|
Less than 2,000 |
5 |
10 |
|
2,000 to 9,999 |
10 |
10 |
|
10,000 to 19,999 |
10 |
50 |
|
20,000 or more |
10 |
100 |
For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.
Additional information
More information about the projections is available in Area unit population projections and Information about the Demographic Projections.
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The latest National Ethnic Population Projections have been produced for four broad ethnic populations of New Zealand: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian and Pacific. The new projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2006 as a base, and cover the period to 2026 at one-year intervals.
It is important to note that the ethnic populations discussed here are not mutually exclusive because people can, and do, identify with more than one ethnicity.
People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population that they identify with.
These ethnic population projections complement the projections of the New Zealand population (National Population Projections, 2006 (base) – 2061), released on 24 October 2007. However, only series 6 of the respective ethnic population projections and series 5 of the national population projections are designed to be directly comparable. Other series cannot be directly compared because the projection assumptions may be incompatible.
For each ethnic group, 11 alternative series have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. At the time of release (April 2008), projection series 6 is considered the most suitable for assessing future population changes.
Series 6 of the respective ethnic population projections assumes:
- Fertility: By 2026, the total fertility rate will be 1.75 births per woman for 'European or Other' women, 2.50 for Māori women, 1.55 for Asian women, and 2.60 for Pacific women. While the total paternity rate will be 0.14 births per man for 'European or Other' men (with non-European and non-Other women), 0.95 for Māori men (with non-Māori women), 0.22 for Asian men (with non-Asian women), and 1.05 for Pacific men (with non-Pacific woman).
- Mortality: Life expectancy at birth will increase for the 'European or Other' population to 82.6 years for males and 86.2 years for females by 2026, for the Māori population to 76.5 years for males and 80.6 years for females, for the Asian population to 85.4 years for males and 88.8 years for females, and for the Pacific population to 78.4 years for males and 82.3 years for females.
- Migration: There will be long-run annual net migration levels of -3,000 for the 'European or Other' population (from 2010), -3,000 for the Māori population (from 2010), 12,000 for the Asian population (from 2010), and 500 for the Pacific population (from 2008).
- Inter-ethnic mobility: There will be a net change to the population due to people changing their ethnic identification of zero percent a year for the 'European or Other' population, -0.3 percent for the Māori population, -0.2 percent for the Asian population, and -0.2 percent for the Pacific population.
The other projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from changes in the assumptions for each of the components of population change. Series 2, 6 and 10 can be used for assessing the effect of the different fertility assumptions; series 3, 6 and 9 allow for a comparative mortality analysis; series 4, 6 and 8 allow for alternative migration levels; and series 5, 6 and 7 allow for different inter-ethnic mobility rates.
Series 1 and 11 give the lowest and highest projected population, respectively, based on the adopted assumptions. Series 1 uses low fertility, high mortality, low migration and high inter-ethnic mobility. Series 11 uses high fertility, low mortality, high migration and low inter-ethnic mobility.
National ethnic population projections tables
Additional information
More information about the projections, including projection assumptions, is available in the National Ethnic Population Projections Information Releases and Information about the Demographic Projections.
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Table Builder
More information is available about Table Builder (including minimum client requirements and help notes). If you have any queries, contact our Information Centre staff on 0508 525 525 or email info@stats.govt.nz. Our hours are 8am to 5pm, Monday to Friday.
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