Learning outcomes
Students will be able to:
- Describe past population growth trends for the North and South Islands of New Zealand.
- Identify reasons behind population loss or gain within the North and South Islands for selected Censuses.
- Project future population growth within the North and South Islands of New Zealand.
- Identify trends, supported by evidence, which may affect future expected population growth within the North and South Islands.
- From a range of perspectives, evaluate the future consequences for New Zealand of declining birth rates and an aging population.
Teacher Information
New Zealand's Population
Age of the Population
New Zealand's population has undergone significant changes both in population age and the sex ratio of the population in the last 40 years. The age structure of New Zealand's population is a reflection of the rise and fall of the birth rate as well as migration trends. In the last 30 years there has been a general decline in fertility levels as well as an increase in longevity of people, this has seen the median age rise from 25.6 years in 1971 to 33.1 years in 1996. By 2051 it is projected that half of all New Zealanders will be over 45 years of age, in 2001 the median age was 35. The number of New Zealanders aged 65 years and over doubled between 1967 and 2001, to 460,000. This number is expected to reach 1,220,000 by 2051. The number of children (0–14 years) is projected to decrease from 880,000 in 2001 to 750,000 in 2051.
The consequences of dropping fertility levels, fewer children and more people over the age of 65 years will be evident in many different areas within New Zealand. With the decline in children there will need to be school closures or mergers, as there will be less student demand. With a greater percentage of people at retirement age there will be more pressure placed on health services and pensions. At the same time there is going to be a decrease in the number of working-age people and so the government will have less money available from taxes to provide for the public services.
(based on 2001 projections)
Where people live
Three major trends stand out in the geographic distribution of New Zealand's population over the last 150 years:
• an increasing proportion of people living in the north of the country.
• a tendency for people to move from the south to the north.
• increasing urbanization, in particular, a concentration of people in the main urban centres.
Over these 150 years there have been a wide range of social, political and environmental factors that have influenced the trends stated above. These include gold rushes, the post Second World War baby boom, changes in immigration laws, lifestyle changes, and shifts in employment opportunities.
Further information is available from:
Population Information
Lesson plans
Allow at least two lessons to complete the tasks below:
| Time |
Ach.
Obj. |
Activity |
Resources |
| 10–15 mins |
1 |
Mind map
Begin the lesson by getting the students to mind map the factors that have affected population growth in the North or South Island. Many factors will apply to areas within both islands. The teacher could extend students’ prior knowledge by adding details to the mind map. |
|
| 30–35 mins |
1, 2 |
Class timeline
Working in pairs or threes, students will use the statistics from the student information sheet to identify population change in the North and South Islands. There needs to be one group for each date.
Each group:
- presents a bar graph for one census date showing the North and South Island populations (class will need consistent y axes in order to compare data)
- presents a percentage bar graph for the same census date
- suggests relevant factors from the mind map that may have influenced the changes.
Each group presents to the class in chronological order. Discuss the changes.
Optional–a graph of the actual population increases for each island and nationally or the average annual growth rate for each island and nationally. |
Student
information sheet
Poster paper
Pens |
| 30–35 mins |
3 |
Future timeline
Using the Census population results 2001 and the projected growth rates in the notes, have the students calculate potential future populations for the North and South Islands. These predictions should be at 5-yearly intervals and run from 2006 to 2051. Assume that the rate of increase for each island continues to be the same as the national one. |
Student
Information
sheet
Poster
paper
Pens |
| 10–15 mins |
4 |
Future trends
Students suggest factors that could alter the predicted population growth. What evidence from the past and present suggests that these factors are valid?
|
Student
Information
sheet. |
10–15
mins
2–3 mins
per
group |
5 |
Presentation
Students work in groups to identify future consequences (positive and negative) of lower birth rates and an ageing population. They are to do this through the eyes of one of the following groups:
- Ministry of Education
- Ministry of Health
- Retirement home companies
- Today’s teenagers
- Employers
- Community organisations.
The groups then present their findings to the class. |
Student
Information
sheet
Poster
paper
Pens |
Some possible answers
Factors leading to population growth
-
Discovery of gold (especially Otago)
-
The end of the Maori wars led to migration to the North Island
-
Government assisted immigration (eg Vogel’s plan in 1870s): many North Island towns, such as Norsewood (Norwegians), grew from immigration
-
Opening up of Northland's kauri gum fields and North Island main trunk railway led to migration to the North Island
-
Development of intensive farming (following introduction of refrigerated shipping and access to big European markets) led to growth in North Island
-
Unrestricted British entry 1920s–1970s led to growth in both islands
-
Post-war baby boom – higher marriage rate, earlier childbearing, and more married couples having children – growth in both islands
-
Citizenship status granted to Cook Islanders, Niueans, Tokelauans (and Samoans in the 1960s) led to growth, particularly in North Island urban areas and especially Auckland
-
1960s onwards, urbanisation and ‘the drift north’ led to population growth in the North Island, and concentration in urban areas
-
Broadening of refugee policies from 1970s led to growth in both islands
-
Large increases in migration from Asian countries since 1990s led to growth in both islands
-
Auckland has become a significant urban area in terms of the economy and employment
-
Population growth by natural increase (births minus deaths) in the North Island has become bigger than in the South Island.
Adapted from Hensman J.M, Harison M.S and Hensman J.R (2002) Population Studies: population patterns, processes and issues, New House Publishers, Auckland New Zealand
Future trends
-
Factors could include:
-
Net migration change
-
Government policies eg regional development policies
-
Changes to birth rate, particularly if more financial support is given to parents
-
Medical advances that further reduce the death rate
-
Relocation of head offices, major industries and organisations, either off-shore or within New Zealand.
Possible future consequences
Fewer students in schools may mean reduced demand for teachers.
Some schools may face closure or amalgamation.
Schools could offer continuing education courses for older people.
Fewer people paying taxes could place a strain on the health budget.
Increased demand for care for age-related health issues.
Retirement home companies: May benefit financially from increased demand.
- Today’s teenagers:
May need to care for elderly relatives either financially or in practical terms.
Will be likely to need to consider supporting themselves financially in their retirement.
- Employers:
Will have an older workforce.
This could mean benefits in terms of having an experienced workforce, but could also mean reduced opportunities for younger employees seeking promotion.
- Community organisations:
May need to increasingly focus on care for older people.
However older people could be a significant resource in the community, having more energy and time to devote to unpaid work, such as child care and voluntary work.
Population projections
See links from students activity page.
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