Population Estimates at 30 June 2006–13

 

Introduction

The estimated resident population of an area in New Zealand is an estimate of all people who usually live in that area at a given date. Visitors from elsewhere in New Zealand or from overseas are excluded. 

The estimated resident population at 30 June 2006–13 is based on the 2006 census usually resident population count, updated for:

  1. net census undercount (based on the 2006 Post-enumeration Survey)
  2. residents temporarily overseas on census night
  3. births, deaths, and net migration between census night and the date of the estimate
  4. reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0–4 years.

The estimated resident population is not directly comparable with the census usually resident population count because of these adjustments.

New national and subnational estimates using the 2013 Census results as a base will be published from August 2014, after estimates of net census undercount from the 2013 Post-enumeration Survey are available in March 2014.

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NZ.Stat tables

The tables below provide population estimates based on two sets of subnational boundaries: boundaries at 1 January 2013 and boundaries at 30 June 2006. For enquiries about the subnational areas that feature in these tables, contact info@stats.govt.nz.

Boundaries at 1 January 2013

At 1 January 2013 there are 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas, and 2,020 area units.

Estimated subnational population (RC, AU), by age and sex, at 30 June 2006–13 (2013 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of regions and area units by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2006–13.

Estimated subnational population (TA, AU), by age and sex, at 30 June 2006–13 (2013 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of territorial authority areas and area units by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2006–13.

Estimated subnational component changes and median age (RC, TA) at 30 June 2006–13 (2013 boundaries)
Estimated natural increase (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal migration combined), and median age of regional council areas and territorial authority areas, at 30 June 2006–13.

Estimated subnational population (TA, ward), by age and sex, at 30 June 2013 (2013 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of territorial authority areas and ward areas by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2013.

Estimated subnational population (TA, CB), by age and sex, at 30 June 2013 (2013 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of territorial authority areas and community board areas by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2013.

Estimated subnational population (TA, subdivision), by age and sex, at 30 June 2013 (2013 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of territorial authority areas and subdivison areas by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2013.

Estimated subnational population (RC, constituency), by age and sex, at 30 June 2013 (2013 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of regional council areas and regional council constituency areas by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2013.

Estimated subnational population (DHB, DHB constituency), by age and sex, at 30 June 2013 (2013 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of district health board areas and district health board constituency areas by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2013.

Population estimates for local government areas (wards, community boards, subdivisions, district health board, and constituencies) were obtained by splitting area unit population estimates between the meshblock in each local government area. Split factors were derived using 2006 census usually resident population counts, as well as recent birth registration, death registration, and residential building consents for each meshblock.

Boundaries at 30 June 2006

At 30 June 2006 there were 16 regional council areas (regions), 73 territorial authority areas, and 1,927 area units.

Estimated Subnational Population (RC, AU) by Age and Sex at 30 June 2006–13 (2006 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of regions and area units by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2006–13.

Estimated Subnational Population (TA, AU) by Age and Sex at 30 June 2006–13 (2006 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of territorial authority areas and area units by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2006–13.

See NZ.Stat for more information.

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Information about rounding

Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.

The rounding of figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules that have been applied are shown below.

Total population size of geographic area Rounding of five-year age group cells Rounding of broad age group and total (all ages) cells
Less than 2,000 5 10
2,000 to 9,999 10 10
10,000 to 19,999 10 50
20,000 or more 10 100

For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.

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Limitations of subnational population estimates

Population estimates give the best available measure of the size and age-sex structure of the population usually living in an area. However, uncertainty is inherent in the estimation process. Statistics NZ produces population estimates using a component methodology, where the components of population change (births, deaths, and net migration) are used to update a base population. There is some uncertainty associated with component data, particularly the estimation of net migration (international and internal migration combined) for subnational areas. Generally, the uncertainty associated with population estimates increases as the estimates move further away from the base or starting point (in this case 30 June 2006). Uncertainty also increases as population estimates are broken down by age, sex, and geographic area.

The 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes triggered large migration flows as people were displaced from earthquake-affected areas. Consequently, some additional uncertainties apply to subnational population estimates at 30 June 2011–12. These uncertainties concern whether population movements:

  • are short-term (ie temporary) or long-term in nature
  • occurred before or after the 30 June 2011/12 reference date.

It is not possible to ascertain the accuracy of current population estimates as no independent authoritative measure of the resident population exists. Furthermore, there is no data source that perfectly measures changes in the resident population, or even movements of the resident population within New Zealand.

Since 2006, Statistics NZ has implemented a number of changes to its estimation methods aimed at improving the accuracy of population estimates. This has included the use of various administrative data sources and refined methods for using these data sources. Collectively they provide confidence about the general robustness of population estimates.

The periodic Census of Population and Dwellings remains the cornerstone of population statistics in New Zealand. Following the 2013 Census, revised population estimates using the 2013 Census results as a base will be published from August 2014, after estimates of net census undercount from the 2013 Post-enumeration Survey are available in March 2014.

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More information

DataInfo+ Demographic estimates contains detailed information about the methods used to derive population estimates.

Estimating local populations after the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes describes the data sources used to derive subnational population estimates after 2011. 

Evaluation of alternative data sources for population estimates assesses a diverse range of existing administrative and commercial data sources that might be useful for producing subnational population estimates.

See Infoshare (choose Population and Population Estimates from the homepage) for the estimated resident population of New Zealand by single-year of age and sex, from 1991 onwards.

See Māori population estimates tables for the estimated resident population of Māori ethnic group by single-year of age and sex, from 1991 onwards.

Historical population estimates tables have national population estimates by sex back to 1926.

Request customised data if the data you need is not available in published tables.

If you have any queries, contact our Information Centre:
Phone: 0508 525 525 toll-free
Email: info@stats.govt.nz
Hours: 8am to 5pm, Monday to Friday (excluding public holidays).

Page updated 19 December 2013