Introduction
The estimated resident population of an area in New Zealand is an estimate of all people who usually live in that area at a given date. Visitors from elsewhere in New Zealand or from overseas are excluded.
The estimated resident population at 30 June 2006–11 is based on the 2006 census usually resident population count, updated for:
- net census undercount (based on the 2006 Post-enumeration Survey)
- residents temporarily overseas on census night
- births, deaths, and net migration between census night and the date of the estimate
- reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0–4 years.
The estimated resident population is not directly comparable with the census usually resident population count because of these adjustments.
Estimating local populations following the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes
Statistics New Zealand has used a number of data sources to assess population change in Canterbury, and across New Zealand's subnational areas, during the June 2011 year (see Estimating local populations following the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes). This reflects the extra challenges in estimating migration flows and local populations given the abrupt local impact of the earthquakes. It also reflects the extra demand for definitive population statistics following the earthquakes.
When interpreting subnational population estimates at 30 June 2011 it is important to note the following:
- The population estimates relate to population change over the year ended 30 June 2011. The earthquakes occurred part-way through the June 2011 year, with the most devastating earthquake on 22 February 2011.
- When estimating the resident population, the challenge is to quantify population moves that have resulted in a change of usual residence. At 30 June 2011 many Canterbury people were temporarily living away from their home and were uncertain if, and when, they might return. They include people who were living with family or friends elsewhere in New Zealand or overseas, and people who were living in temporary accommodation villages and non-private dwellings (such as motels and camping grounds). For most of these people, their usual address at 30 June 2011 was their home, even if their home was uninhabitable or they had not been living there for several months.
- Announcements on 'red zoning' in Christchurch city and Waimakariri district – land areas to be removed from residential use – were first made in June 2011. It is anticipated that most of the population movement out of these areas will occur in the June 2012 and 2013 years.
Table Builder tables
The tables below provide population estimates based on two sets of subnational boundaries: boundaries at 1 July 2011 and boundaries at 30 June 2006. For enquiries about the subnational areas that feature in these tables, contact demography@stats.govt.nz.
Boundaries at 1 July 2011
At 1 July 2011 there were 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas, and 2,013 area units.
Estimated Subnational Population (RC,AU) by Age and Sex at 30 June 2006–11 (2011 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of regions and area units by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2006–11.
Estimated Subnational Population (TA,AU) by Age and Sex at 30 June 2006–11 (2011 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of territorial authority areas and area units by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2006–11.
Boundaries at 30 June 2006
At 30 June 2006 there were 16 regional council areas (regions), 73 territorial authority areas, and 1,927 area units.
Estimated Subnational Population (RC,AU) by Age and Sex at 30 June 2006–11 (2006 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of regions and area units by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2006–11.
Estimated Subnational Population (TA,AU) by Age and Sex at 30 June 2006–11 (2006 boundaries)
Estimated resident population of territorial authority areas and area units by age (broad age groups and five-year age groups) and sex, at 30 June 2006–11.
Information about rounding
Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.
The rounding of figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules that have been applied are shown below.
| Total population size of geographic area |
Rounding of five-year age group cells |
Rounding of broad age group and total (all ages) cells |
| Less than 2,000 |
5 |
10 |
| 2,000 to 9,999 |
10 |
10 |
| 10,000 to 19,999 |
10 |
50 |
| 20,000 or more |
10 |
100 |
For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.
Limitations of subnational population estimates
Population estimates give the best available measure of the size and age-sex structure of the population usually living in an area. However, uncertainty is inherent in the estimation process. Statistics NZ produces population estimates using a component methodology, where the components of population change (births, deaths, and net migration) are used to update a base population. There is some uncertainty associated with component data, particularly the estimation of net migration (international and internal migration combined) for subnational areas. Generally, the uncertainty associated with population estimates increases as the estimates move further away from the base or starting point (in this case 30 June 2006). Uncertainty also increases as population estimates are broken down by age, sex, and geographic area.
The 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes triggered large migration flows as people were displaced from earthquake-affected areas. Consequently, some additional uncertainties apply to subnational population estimates at 30 June 2011. These uncertainties concern whether population movements:
- are short-term (ie temporary) or long-term in nature
- occurred before or after the 30 June 2011 reference date.
It is not possible to ascertain the accuracy of current population estimates as no independent authoritative measure of the resident population exists. Furthermore, there is no data source that perfectly measures changes in the resident population, or even movements of the resident population within New Zealand.
Since 2006, Statistics NZ has implemented a number of changes to its estimation methods aimed at improving the accuracy of population estimates. This has included the use of new data sources and refined methods for using existing data sources. The data sources that have been used to produce subnational population estimates at 30 June 2011 are outlined in Estimating local populations after the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes. These data sources yield different measures of subnational population change for the June 2011 year. However, collectively they provide confidence about the general robustness of population estimates.
The periodic Census of Population and Dwellings remains the cornerstone of population statistics in New Zealand. Following the 2013 Census it will be possible to derive updated estimates of the population, to assess the accuracy of estimates since 2006, and to revise estimates where necessary.
Additional information
Subnational population estimates tables is a web page that provides links to additional subnational population estimates.
Estimating local populations after the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes describes the data sources used to derive subnational population estimates at 30 June 2011.
Evaluation of alternative data sources for population estimates provides an overview of a diverse range of existing administrative and commercial data sources that might be useful for producing population estimates in the future.
Information about the population estimates contains detailed information about the methods used to derive population estimates.
More information about Table Builder (including minimum client requirements and help notes) is available.
If the data you require is not available in published tables, you may wish to consider requesting some customised data.
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