National population projections
2011-base to 2061
The 2011-base national population projections (released July 2012) have as a base the estimated resident population of New Zealand at 30 June 2011, and cover the period to 2061 at one-year intervals. They supersede the 2009-base national population projections (released October 2009).
Stochastic (probabilistic) population projections are produced to give estimates of uncertainty, although these estimates are themselves uncertain. The stochastic population projections are produced by combining 2,000 simulations of the assumptions. These simulations can be summarised by percentiles, which indicate the probability that the actual result is lower than the percentile. For example, the 25th percentile indicates an estimated 25 percent probability that the actual result will be lower, and a 75 percent probability that the actual result will be higher, than this percentile.
Seven alternative percentiles of probability distribution (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles) are available in these tables.
At the time of release, the 50th percentile (or median) indicates an estimated 50 percent probability that the actual result will be lower, and a 50 percent probability that the actual result will be higher, than this percentile. The median projection assumes:
'What if?' scenarios
Five 'what if?' scenarios have been produced to illustrate what happens when different specific levels of fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions are combined.
Very high fertility assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 2.5 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth reaching 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females in 2061
- annual net migration of 12,000 in the long term.
Very low mortality assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth reaching 95.0 years for both males and females in 2061
- annual net migration of 12,000 in the long term.
No migration assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth reaching 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females in 2061
- no external migration from 2012 onwards (ie a 'closed' population).
Cyclic migration assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth in 2061 reaching 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females in 2061
- annual net migration fluctuates between -10,000 and 30,000 over a 10-year cycle, with an average of 12,000.
Very high migration assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth reaching 2061 of 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females in 2061
- annual net migration of 25,000.
See the 2011-base tables in Table Builder:
Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)–2061
Projected population characteristics, 2011(base)–2061
Projected population assumptions, 2011(base)–2061
Additional information
See more information about the projections, including projection assumptions:
National Population Projections – information releases
Information about the Demographic Projections
2009-base to 2061
The 2009-base national population projections (released October 2009) have as a base the estimated resident population (provisional) of New Zealand at 30 June 2009, and cover the period to 2061 at one-year intervals. They have been superseded by the 2011-base national population projections (see above).
Nine alternative projections were produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. At the time of release, Statistics NZ considers the mid-range projection series 5 suitable for assessing future population changes. However, users can make their own judgement as to which projections are most suitable for their purpose. Series 5 assumes:
- fertility – the total fertility rate will decrease to 1.9 births per woman by 2026 and then remain constant.
- mortality – life expectancy at birth will increase to 85.6 years for males and 88.7 years for females by 2061.
- migration – a long-run annual net migration gain of 10,000 people from 2013.
The other projections allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from changes in the assumptions for each of the components of population change. Series 4, 5, and 6 can be used for assessing the effect of the different migration assumptions; series 3, 5, and 7 allow for a comparative mortality analysis; and series 2, 5, and 8 allow for a comparative fertility analysis.
Series 1 and 9 give the lowest and highest projected population, respectively, based on the adopted assumptions. Series 1 uses low fertility, high mortality, and low net migration. Series 9 uses high fertility, low mortality, and high net migration.
See the 2009-base tables in Table Builder:
Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2009(base)–2061
Projected population characteristics, 2009(base)–2061
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Subnational population projections
2006-base to 2031 (October 2012 update)
The updated 2006-base subnational population projections (released October 2012) have as a base the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals. These supersede the original 2006-base subnational population projections (released December 2007) and the updated 2006-base subnational population projections (released February 2010).
Three alternative projections (designated low, medium, and high) have been produced for each area using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. At the time of release, Statistics NZ considers the medium projection suitable for assessing future population changes. The medium projection is consistent with the median (50th percentile) of the National Population Projections: 2011(base)–2061 (released July 2012). However, users can make their own judgement as to which projections are most suitable for their purpose.
The low and high projections allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of the national population projections as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area. As a result, the low and high population projections at the subnational level do not necessarily sum to low and high population projections at broader geographic levels. The low projection uses low fertility, high mortality, and low net migration for each area. The high projection uses high fertility, low mortality, and high net migration for each area.
See the 2006-base (October 2012 update) tables in Table Builder:
Subnational population projections by age and sex, 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)
Subnational projected population characteristics, 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)
Subnational population projections assumptions, 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)
Information about rounding
Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.
The rounding of population figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules that have been applied are outlined below.
| Total population size of geographic area |
Rounding of single year of age and five-year age group cells |
Rounding of broad age group, total (all ages), births, deaths and natural increase cells |
| Less than 2,000 |
5 |
10 |
| 2,000 to 9,999 |
10 |
10 |
| 10,000 to 19,999 |
10 |
50 |
| 20,000 or more |
10 |
100 |
For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.
Additional information
See more information about the projections, including projection assumptions:
Subnational Population Projections – information releases
Information about the Demographic Projections
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2006-base to 2031 (February 2010 update)
The updated 2006-base subnational population projections (released February 2010) have as a base the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals. These supersede the original 2006-base subnational population projections (released December 2007). They have been superseded by the 2006-base subnational population projections (October 2012 update) (see above).
Three alternative projections (designated low, medium, and high) have been produced for each area using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. At the time of release, Statistics NZ considers the medium projection suitable for assessing future population changes. The medium projection is consistent with mid-range projection series 5 of the National Population Projections: 2009(base)–2061 (released October 2009). However, users can make their own judgement as to which projections are most suitable for their purpose.
The low and high projections allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of the national population projections as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area. As a result, the low and high population projections at the subnational level do not necessarily sum to low and high population projections at broader geographic levels. The low projection uses low fertility, high mortality, and low net migration for each area. The high projection uses high fertility, low mortality, and high net migration for each area.
See the 2006-base (February 2010 update) tables in Table Builder:
Subnational population projections by age and sex, 2006(base)–2031 update
Subnational projected population characteristics, 2006(base)–2031 update
Information about rounding
Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.
The rounding of population figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules that have been applied are outlined below.
| Total population size of geographic area |
Rounding of single year of age and five-year age group cells |
Rounding of broad age group, total (all ages), births, deaths and natural increase cells |
| Less than 2,000 |
5 |
10 |
| 2,000 to 9,999 |
10 |
10 |
| 10,000 to 19,999 |
10 |
50 |
| 20,000 or more |
10 |
100 |
For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.
Additional information
See more information about the projections, including projection assumptions:
Subnational Population Projections – information releases
Information about the Demographic Projections
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Auckland local board population projections
2006-base to 2031
The 2006-base Auckland local board population projections (released November 2012) have as a base the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals.
Three alternative projections (designated low, medium, and high) have been produced for each area using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. At the time of release, Statistics NZ considers the medium projection suitable for assessing future population changes. The medium projection is consistent with the medium projection for Auckland territorial authority in the Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update). However, users can make their own judgement as to which projections are most suitable for their purpose.
The low and high projections allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of the Auckland territorial authority population projections as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area. As a result, the low and high population projections at the local board level do not necessarily sum to low and high population projections at broader geographic levels. The low projection uses low fertility, high mortality, and low net migration for each area. The high projection uses high fertility, low mortality, and high net migration for each area.
See the 2006-base tables in Table Builder:
Auckland local board population projections by age and sex, 2006(base)–2031
Auckland local board projected population characteristics, 2006(base)–2031
Auckland local board population projections assumptions, 2006(base)–2031
Information about rounding
Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.
The rounding of population figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules that have been applied are outlined below.
| Total population size of geographic area |
Rounding of single year of age and five-year age group cells |
Rounding of broad age group, total (all ages), births, deaths and natural increase cells |
| Less than 2,000 |
5 |
10 |
| 2,000 to 9,999 |
10 |
10 |
| 10,000 to 19,999 |
10 |
50 |
| 20,000 or more |
10 |
100 |
For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.
Additional information
See more information about the projections, including projection assumptions:
Subnational Population Projections – information releases
Information about the Demographic Projections
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Area unit population projections
2006-base to 2031 (December 2012 update)
The updated 2006-base area unit population projections for selected territorial authority areas (Waimakariri, Christchurch, and Selwyn) were released in December 2012. These population projections have the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006 as a base, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals. They supersede the updated 2006-base area unit population projections released in 2010.
Three alternative projections (low, medium, and high) were produced for each area using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. At the time of release, Statistics NZ considers the medium projection suitable for assessing future population changes. The medium projection is consistent with the medium projection for territorial authority areas in the Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update) released on 8 October 2012. However, users can make their own judgement as to which projections are most suitable for their purpose.
The low and high projections allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of the territorial authority area in the subnational population projections, as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area unit rather than at the collective territorial authority area level. The low projection series uses low fertility, high mortality, and low net migration for each area unit. The high projection series uses high fertility, low mortality, and high net migration for each area unit.
See the updated 2006-base area unit projections tables in Table Builder:
Area unit population projections by age and sex, for selected territorial authority areas, 2006(base)–2031 (December 2012 update)
Area unit projected population characteristics, for selected territorial authority areas, 2006 (base)–2031 (December 2012 update)
Area unit population projections assumptions, for selected territorial authority areas, 2006 (base)–2031 (December 2012 update)
Information about rounding
Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.
The rounding of population figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules applied are outlined below.
| Total population size of geographic area |
Rounding of single year of age and five-year age group cells |
Rounding of broad age group, total (all ages), births, deaths and natural increase cells |
| Less than 2,000 |
5 |
10 |
| 2,000 to 9,999 |
10 |
10 |
| 10,000 to 19,999 |
10 |
50 |
| 20,000 or more |
10 |
100 |
For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.
Additional information
See more information about the projections:
Area unit population projections
Information about the Demographic Projections
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2006-base to 2031 (2010 update)
The updated 2006-base area unit population projections (released 2010) have the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006 as a base, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals. They supersede the original 2006-base area unit population projections (released 2008).
Three alternative projections (designated low, medium, and high) have been produced for each area unit using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. At the time of release, Statistics NZ considers the medium projection suitable for assessing future population changes. The medium projection is consistent with mid-range projection series 5 of the National Population Projections: 2009(base)–2061 (released October 2009) and the medium projection of the Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 update (released February 2010). However, users can make their own judgement as to which projections are most suitable for their purpose.
The low and high projections allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of the national population projections and subnational population projections (regions, cities, and districts) as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area unit. As a result, the low and high population projections at the area unit level do not necessarily sum to low and high population projections at broader geographic levels. The low projection uses low fertility, high mortality, and low net migration for each area unit. The high projection uses high fertility, low mortality, and high net migration for each area unit.
See the 2006-base (2010 update) tables in Table Builder:
Area unit population projections by territorial authorities, age and sex, 2006(base)–2031 update
Area unit projected population characteristics by territorial authorities, 2006(base)–2031 update
Information about rounding
Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.
The rounding of population figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules applied are outlined below.
| Total population size of geographic area |
Rounding of single year of age and five-year age group cells |
Rounding of broad age group, total (all ages), births, deaths and natural increase cells |
| Less than 2,000 |
5 |
10 |
| 2,000 to 9,999 |
10 |
10 |
| 10,000 to 19,999 |
10 |
50 |
| 20,000 or more |
10 |
100 |
For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.
Additional information
See more information about the projections:
Area unit population projections
Information about the Demographic Projections
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National ethnic population projections tables
2006-base to 2026 (April 2010 update)
The updated national ethnic population projections (released April 2010) cover four broad and overlapping ethnic populations of New Zealand: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian and Pacific. The new projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2006 as a base, and cover the period to 2026 at one-year intervals. They supersede the 2006-base national ethnic population projections (released April 2008).
It is important to note that the ethnic populations discussed here are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population that they identify with.
These ethnic population projections complement the projections of the New Zealand population, National Population Projections, 2009(base)–2061 (released October 2009). However, only series 6 of the respective ethnic population projections and series 5 of the national population projections are designed to be directly comparable. Other series cannot be directly compared because the projection assumptions may be incompatible.
For each ethnic group, eleven alternative projections have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. At the time of release, Statistics NZ considers the mid-range projection series 6 suitable for assessing future population changes. However, users can make their own judgement as to which projections are most suitable for their purpose.
Series 6 of the respective ethnic population projections assumes:
- fertility – by 2026, the total fertility rate will be 1.85 births per woman for European or Other women, 2.50 for Māori women, 1.50 for Asian women, and 2.65 for Pacific women, while the total paternity rate will be 0.165 births per man for European or Other men (with non-European and non-Other women), 0.95 for Māori men (with non-Māori women), 0.23 for Asian men (with non-Asian women), and 1.00 for Pacific men (with non-Pacific women).
- mortality – life expectancy at birth will increase for the European or Other population to 82.2 years for males and 85.4 years for females by 2026, for the Māori population to 75.4 years for males and 79.2 years for females, for the Asian population to 86.6 years for males and 89.7 years for females, and for the Pacific population to 77.0 years for males and 80.4 years for females.
- migration – there will be long-run annual net migration levels of -3,000 for the European or Other population (from 2013), -3,000 for the Māori population (from 2012), 12,000 for the Asian population (from 2010), and 500 for the Pacific population (from 2008).
- inter-ethnic mobility – there will be a net change to the population due to people changing their ethnic identification of zero percent a year for the European or Other population, -0.3 percent for the Māori population, -0.2 percent for the Asian population, and -0.2 percent for the Pacific population.
The other projections allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from changes in the assumptions for each of the components of population change. Series 2, 6 and 10 can be used for assessing the effect of the different fertility assumptions; series 3, 6 and 9 allow for a comparative mortality analysis; series 4, 6 and 8 allow for alternative migration levels; and series 5, 6 and 7 allow for different inter-ethnic mobility rates. Series 1 and 11 give the lowest and highest projected population, respectively, based on the adopted assumptions.
Series 1 uses low fertility, high mortality, low net migration, and high inter-ethnic mobility. Series 11 uses high fertility, low mortality, high net migration, and low inter-ethnic mobility.
See the 2006-base (April 2010 update) tables in Table Builder:
Projected ethnic populations of New Zealand, by sex and age, 2006(base)–2026 update
Projected ethnic population characteristics, 2006(base)–2026 update
Additional information
See more information about the projections, including projection assumptions:
National Ethnic Population Projections – information releases
Information about the Demographic Projections
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National labour force projections
2006-base to 2061 (August 2012 update)
The latest national labour force projections (released August 2012) have as a base the estimated resident population of New Zealand in the labour force at 30 June 2006. The projections cover the period to 2061 at one-year intervals. They supersede the updated 2006-base national labour force projections released in May 2010.
Stochastic (probabilistic) labour force projections are produced to give estimates of uncertainty, although these estimates are themselves uncertain. The projections are produced by combining 2,000 simulations of the labour force participation assumptions with 2,000 simulations of the 2011-base national population projections.
These simulations can be summarised by percentiles, which indicate the probability that the actual result is lower than the percentile. For example, the 25th percentile indicates an estimated 25 percent probability that the actual result will be lower, and a 75 percent probability that the actual result will be higher, than this percentile.
Seven alternative percentiles of probability distribution (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles) are available in these tables.
At the time of release, the 50th percentile (or median) indicates an estimated 50 percent probability that the actual result will be lower, and a 50 percent probability that the actual result will be higher, than this percentile. The median projection assumes:
- fertility, mortality, and migration – as outlined in the 2011-base national population projections (see above)
- labour force participation – the average working life (to age 80 years) increases to 49.4 years for males and 43.4 years for females. In 2006, the base average working life (to age 80 years) was 45.5 years for males and 37.0 years for females.
'What if?' scenarios
Five 'what if?' scenarios have been produced to illustrate what happens when different specific levels of fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions are combined with the median labour force participation assumptions.
Very high fertility assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 2.5 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth reaching 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females in 2061
- annual net migration of 12,000 in the long term.
Very low mortality assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth reaching 95.0 years for both males and females in 2061
- annual net migration of 12,000 in the long term.
No migration assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth reaching 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females in 2061
- no external migration from 2012 onwards (ie a 'closed' population).
Cyclic migration assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth in 2061 reaching 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females in 2061
- annual net migration fluctuates between -10,000 and 30,000 over a 10-year cycle, with an average of 12,000.
Very high migration assumes:
- a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman in the long term
- period life expectancy at birth reaching 2061 of 88.1 years for males and 90.5 years for females in 2061
- annual net migration of 25,000.
See the 2006-base (August 2012 update) tables in Table Builder:
Projected labour force of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)–2061 (August 2012 update)
Projected labour force characteristics, 2006(base)–2061 (August 2012 update)
Table Builder
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Page updated 17 December 2012